Pre-market Tour

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
The decline’s next lower objective at 2749.00 had been thoroughly tested overnight. But already rallying before Thursday’s open prevented the open from testing 2749.00. Which also prevented holding a test of 2749.00. Probing positive territory above Wednesday’s 2881.00 and 2892.50 cash session and futures closes peaked upon attacking 2799.00, reversing back down to 2749.00. But it was no longer the open, making its test less likely to hold. So, its reaction up to 2787.50 was reversed down to the next lower objective at 2721.00 and the room for noise under it down to 2712.00. Reaction to a China trade war headline bounced again to 2766.00 still closed back under 2749.00 at 2732.00 at the cash session close, and futures settled at 2745.50.

Overnight action’s new info…
Firming further after the futures close did extend back above 2749.00. Extending relentlessly through the intraday China headline’s peak at 2766.00 touched 2785.00 at Europe’s opens. Reversing from there was also relentless until testing the China headline’s peak down to 2764.00 — still above 2749.00 and well into positive territory.

If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
Closing under 2749.00 is relevant. If not rejected, then its next lower objective would be in-play. But already having tested its next lower objective at Thursday’s low, confirming Thursday’s close under 2749.00 all but ensures putting into play the next lower objective, which would overshadow this week’s decline. Oversold RSIs already requires retesting Thursday’s  2712.25 low. Neutralizing it before closing back above 2723.25 could be bullish, but not nearly as bullish as then closing back above 2749.00. Closing under 2709.00 would essentially open the floodgates. Rallying overnight to indicate gapping up above 2749.00 is a good start at rejecting Thursday’s close under it. Quickly reversing a swell of optimism at the open would suggest that buyers are expended. Meanwhile, having trended down into yesterday’s cash session close, maintaining a gap up above yesterday afternoon’s 2777.00 bias-environment high could form a session-long rally.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2780.00 would be likely also to exceed the 2773.00 bias-up target at 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal. Exiting the open above 2767.00 would be likely at least to trigger the 2752.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2747.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Tuesday’s pattern had reflected sharply disparate opinion being expressed, likely to explode in one direction or the other. The resolution didn’t have to be immediate, but it was. S&Ps were down 106 points through Wednesday’s cash session close to 2780.00. Tuesday had closed at 2886.00-2888.00 and last week’s highs were 2942.00-2945.00. Causes range from rising rates, tighter falling unemployment, and vice versa, to widespread accelerated dumping of FAANGs and other tech stocks, which we began anticipating with August’s earnings reactions to NFLX and FB. Their charts reflect no accumulation through Wednesday’s close.

Overnight action’s new info…
Extending slightly (relatively!) lower held 2771.00 for awhile, then broke sharply lower to within 1 point of the next set of “lower prior highs” begins at 2749.00. All of which was eventually retraced by rallying into and out of Europe’s opens back up to natural resistance at yesterday’s 2780.00 close. All of which was soon retraced to probe 2 points under 2749.00. Its reaction up to 2763.50 seems to be failing.

If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
August’s probe above January’s high is gone, after being tested as support both last month and last week. Overnight lows have tested, retested, and re-retested the next set of lower prior highs at 2749.00, that I identified at yesterday’s Market Wrap. That’s where a “buy-the-dip” mentality would have been likely, as it has been overnight. Holding its test through the open would allow a corrective bounce. My biggest concern with buying today is the drop’s midweek timing, which doesn’t inhibit reinforcements, fueling the perpetual motion machinery into and out of the weekend. Meanwhile, also, public focus is being diluted by coverage of Hurricane Michael’s Florida devastation, which is exceeding expectations. Breaking under 2749.00 — now, or later — would target a cluster of objectives and support around 2721.00. Closing under 2709.00 could spell near-term doom.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2762.50 would be likely also to exceed the 2769.50 bias-down target at 10:15 to renew the bias-down signal. Exiting the open under 2773.00 would be likely at least to trigger the 2778.50 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2788.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Tuesday’s range was the narrowest since last Wednesday, and the first session since then not to trend. Fluctuating around Monday’s 2890.00-2894.00 close was never complacent to be unchanged, probing positive and negative territory, then ending at 2886.00-2888.00. Sponsorship for divergent opinions isn’t suffering, which is usually the recipe for soon exploding in one direction or the other. No traction was gained either way Tuesday afternoon, requiring that credible trending Wednesday morning begin by gapping open.

Overnight action’s new info…
Yesterday afternoon’s range hasn’t been broken overnight. Trending attempts have been brief and contained between 2882.00-2891.00, its range narrowing too slightly to be labeled. Price is currently testing 2888.00.

If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
Gapping up above Tuesday’s 2900.00 high isn’t currently indicated, which would be credible for extending higher intraday. A late surge may yet threaten it, but surging late from an overnight range usually proves to be a head-fake that is retraced, and often rejected. Breaking lower within 60-90 minutes of the open would also be unlikely to extend, at least not before retracing back into the overnight range. Either scenario complies with the template I described yesterday, that the choppy range reflects widely disparate opinion and not complacency. Meanwhile, the close has room up to 2914.00 before signaling the trend has reversed up. Just closing above Friday and Monday afternoon’s 2895.00 highs would at least indicate a bottom has formed. Ultimately breaking lower would all but ensure retesting Monday’s 2866.00 low, and then probably also 2850.00.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2884.50 would be unlikely to trigger the 2880.50 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2877.00 would be likely to trigger bias-down.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Monday was defined by two big intraday recoveries, albeit from only one new low. The first drop had developed mostly overnight, and extended momentarily post-open down to 2878.00 — 12-16 points under Friday’s close and still above Friday’s low. It was recovered to attack Friday’s close. The second drop was almost 28 points down to 2866.00, 7 points under Friday’s low. It was also recovered to attack Friday’s close. Two big recoveries, and still in negative territory. Closing back above Thursday’s 2887.75 low for a second consecutive session was constructive, but not a reversal signal. And gaining traction through the afternoon windows wouldn’t be reliable.

Overnight action’s new info…
Shallow sideways ranging down to 2889.00 never probed positive territory, and persisted until Europe’s opens approached. Then the range started breaking lower, and lower. A brief consolidation has now resolved down to fresh overnight lows at 2876.00.

If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
Monday afternoon’s traction wasn’t influential overnight, leaving this morning, but gapping down isn’t helping. “Unfinished business” left from Friday at 2990.25 remains outstanding above, while Monday’s new unfinished business below at 2880.50 has been neutralized overnight. Testing it is vulnerable to also testing 2867.75, and oversold RSIs at Monday’s 2866.00 low — and then to extending the decline to 2850.00 unless rescued by the attraction to unfinished business above and yesterday afternoon’s upside traction.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2883.00 would be likely to trigger the 2885.00 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2874.75 would be likely to exceed the 2877.25 bias-down target at 10:15 to renew the bias-down signal.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Anxiousness ahead of Friday’s Employment Situation report had kept overnight action range bound, wide and choppy between 2900.00-2915.00. The report’s volatile reaction still greeted the open flat at 2906.00. The relative calm was a trap, luring in buyers to try resuming Thursday afternoon’s recovery. The trap was sprung at 2914.00, which reversed down to slide 41 points to 2873.25 into the afternoon bias environment. The drop ignored the morning’s no-bias environment to extend under the morning’s 2900.25 bias-down signal during its no-bias environment. The afternoon’s bias-down target was neutralized to within 1 point and RSIs weren’t oversold. Bouncing 21 points into the final hour up to 2874.50 then ranged sideways into the weekend.

Overnight action’s new info…
Sunday night’s open initially popped-up to 2898.25, but then soon dipped 10 points to attack 2888.00, which is this morning’s bias-down signal. The range persisted, bouncing again to its upper-end, and reversing back down to greet Europe’s opens back at the range’s lower-end. But the retest didn’t hold as the reversal extended down to 2882.50. Now a bounce probing 2888.00 is reversing back down, too.

If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
“Unfinished business” from Friday morning’s no-bias trending under 2900.25 might not be retraced this morning if there’s another overnight low under 2882.50, especially under 2777.00. Holding a retest of Friday’s 2873.25 low should be isolated, either overnight or to the morning to prevent a more substantial downleg. Friday’s close avoided a more substantial downleg by closing back above 2879.00. The next lower objective would be 2850.00, retracing the leg prior to the month-old rally. The only path to avoiding downside pressure this morning may require no less than to open in positive territory — not as an Isolation setup, but to indicate that the thinner Columbus Day trading is inhibiting sellers. Meanwhile, keep in mind its thinner holiday trading will make trending difficult to start, and then difficult stop.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2891.50 would be unlikely to trigger the 2888.00 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2885.00 would be likely to trigger bias-down.