Daily Spot

A weekly summary of one complex, including daily updates of other developments elsewhere.[pay]

Dollar Basket Jun (DXM) Layover in the USD, on the way to exotic destinations. Monday’s gap up above prior highs dipped back to natural support at Friday’s high before extending to higher highs intraday. That’s a lot of highs. And it’s a lot of buying pressure to expend while leaving outstanding gaps back to the prior two session’s closes. It’s not without basis, since none of last week’s lower lows gained traction. And a second consecutive higher close would confirm Monday’s surge. But a probe of last week’s lows is likelier otherwise, as proceeds from Monday’s sell-offs elsewhere finds other homes.

Gold Jun (GCM) Consumer non-durables are doing well, too. An overnight pullback was righted by the US debt downgrade. Its reaction probed prior highs by $10 up to 1498.60. The next higher resistance is 1500.80, which should be touched regardless of the pattern’s resolution. A close under 1485.50 would signal momentum reversing down.

30-year Treasury Jun (USM) Downgrade this, S&P. Gapping up Monday might have seemed to be confirmation of Friday’s new relative high close. But Friday’s close was still in the process of testing 120’25 resistance, so it wasn’t going to be that simple. The US debt downgrade made it more difficult, dipping down to 119’29. Yet, the 121’09 opening print was recovered into the afternoon. It was still being tested at the close, and the morning’s 121’12 high held, too. But the rally could extend to 122’02 and higher if not rejected through Tuesday morning.

Crude Oil Jun (CLM) Corrective rally may be ending ahead of schedule. [Rolling coverage to Jun, trading at about a 60-cent premium to May.] The two-day rally targeting 111.65 peaked $1 short Friday. Monday’s gap down back under the pivotal 108.85-109.15 area did extend down immediately, but ended abruptly. Its close represented a 61.8% retracement from last week’s 106.00 lows. Closing back above 109.50 would signal the 111.65 bounce target back in-play. But closing under 106.00 would signal the expected downleg had already begun. And it is likely to begin by gapping down sharply.

Natural Gas May (NGK) Head fake gets caught. 4.25 resistance had its opportunity for recovery twice last week. Any subsequent attempt would be suspicious. In fact, Monday’s early strength to 4.27 was rejected down to 4.09. New relative lows down to 3.97 remain likely before any credible rally attempt can begin.

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Daily Spot coverage schedule is: Currencies (Mon), Metals (Tue), Energies (Wed), Rates (Thu), Weekender (Fri).

A weekly summary of one complex, including daily updates of other developments elsewhere.[pay]

Dollar Basket Jun (DXM) Still no bottom, but another bottom setup. Friday’s opening print back above prior lows created a gap back down to Thursday’s 74.89 close. The unfinished business below inhibits a recovery from gaining traction. Dipping to fill the gap Monday, and then reversing up to close above Friday’s 75.22 high, would form a durable bottom.

Gold Jun (GCM) Target met, and then some. Wednesday’s recovery above 1455.00 finally extended higher Thursday night to probe 1480.00, whose test was the rally’s minimum objective. It extended higher intraday. Back under 1479.50 would rob buyers of their traction, and a close under 1474.20 would reverse momentum down.

30-year Treasury Jun (USM) Detour, or new rally? The next higher objective at 120’25 was tested Friday morning, and retested in the afternoon, holding through the close. This undermines the ability to resume the downleg targeting 117’00. Buyers get a benefit of the doubt for extending the rally higher so long as 120’12 holds as support. Closing under 120’02 would signal momentum reversing down, confirmed under 119’24.

Crude Oil May (CLK) Rallying into a bear market. Friday’s pattern duplicated Thursday’s gap down and its steep recovery to new highs into the afternoon. Higher objectives at 111.00 were attacked to within $1. Obligatory resistance at the gap back to Monday’s 109.82 close resisted the bounce. But 111.05 is in-play so long as 108.90 holds as support.

Natural Gas May (NGK) Some pauses don’t refresh. Thursday’s rally had held 4.25 as resistance, robbing buyers of their traction. Closing above 4.25 was still capable of signaling an upleg underway. Friday wasn’t expected to close higher, but it didn’t even retrace Thursday’s rally. The optimistic delay suggests that an intraday probe above 4.25 will likely fail, and reverse down sharply.

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Daily Spot coverage schedule is: Currencies (Mon), Metals (Tue), Energies (Wed), Rates (Thu), Weekender (Fri).

A weekly summary of one complex, including daily updates of other developments elsewhere.[pay]

30-year Treasury Jun (USM) False start, may have stopped the bounce. Wednesday’s recovery of 119’18 triggered a gap up at Thursday’s open. A spike up was required to extend the rally. The balance of the session ranged sideways to repeatedly test the 119’25 area as support. While sellers have lost traction, buyers missed an opportunity to gain traction. Closing back under 119’18 would signal momentum reversing down, confirmed under 119’04 and targeting 117’00. Otherwise, another rally effort Friday would be likely to test 120’25 before the decline could resume.

Dollar Basket Jun (DXM) Still no bottom, still possible. Thursday’s session extended the trend down to new lows instead of exploiting Wednesday’s probe of fresh highs for the week. No recovery is required, but not forming a reversal setup would make Monday likely to probe new lows, too. Friday’s close under all prior lows means that gapping up would leave unfinished business below.

Gold Jun (GCM) Compensating for the rally’s delay. Wednesday’s retest of 1455.00 needed to produce a rally almost immediately to maintain potential for new highs to attack 1480.00. Thursday’s open did rally, and extended $20 higher intraday. The rally stopped pessimistically short of probing prior highs, making new highs likelier.

Crude Oil May (CLK) A bigger bounce has little time to delay. A rally needed to begin almost immediately Thursday, to begin at all. The open gapped down, but trended up from there. The rally’s penultimate target at 108.25-108.50 was tested intraday. Back under 107.00-107.50 would signal another downleg underway. Otherwise, the bounce should extend up to 111.00.

Natural Gas May (NGK) Don’t blink, you’ll miss it. The first interesting move this week may have peaked already. Thursday’s EIA report reversed a pessimistic open that had probed fresh lows. The 3.97 target wasn’t fulfilled, but the 4.07 target was retested before recovering back up to 4.25. Closing above 4.25 would suggest an upleg was underway. Otherwise, a steep drop down to 3.97 could begin into the weekend.

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Daily Spot coverage schedule is: Currencies (Mon), Metals (Tue), Energies (Wed), Rates (Thu), Weekender (Fri).

A weekly summary of one complex, including daily updates of other developments elsewhere.[pay]

Crude Oil May (CLK) Recovery attempt must begin immediately, or not at all. The drop from 113.00 had extended so quickly through Tuesday that a lower low would likely be a buy. Lower lows down to 105.37 did print overnight, recovering sharply into the open. Overnight lows were retested intraday down to 105.31. There’s no bullish reason to delay the recovery attempt, no matter its likely bearish resolution, unless the bigger downleg has already begun.

Natural Gas May (NGK) Sitting this one out. Still no compelling price action with unfinished business only slightly lower.

Dollar Basket Jun (DXM) Another door open’s to buyers. An attack on fresh lows was recovered to probe Monday and Tuesday’s highs, closing above Tuesday’s low. This is a bottoming setup, and a close above 75.25 would signal momentum reversing up.

Gold Jun (GCM) A rock stuck between two hard places. 1463.50 held as resistance to avoid triggering fresh highs up to 1480.00. Then 1455.00 held as support to avoid lower lows testing 1447.00 – any lower there would trigger a new downleg.

30-year Treasury Jun (USM) About that last dip… Despite gapping down Wednesday under 119’04 to reject Tuesday’s test of 119’18, Tuesday’s highs were recovered. The afternoon’s action was distributive, but wasn’t triggered. Immediate weakness at Thursday’s open would be credible for extending down sharply intraday and resuming the drop to 117’00. Triggering immediate strength first, instead, would also be credible, targeting 120’25.

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Daily Spot coverage schedule is: Currencies (Mon), Metals (Tue), Energies (Wed), Rates (Thu), Weekender (Fri).

A weekly summary of one complex, including daily updates of other developments elsewhere.[pay]

Gold Jun (GCM) That was big, but not big enough. Monday’s “ineffectual pessimism” gave way to some very effective pessimism. An overnight dip tested the rally’s original 1455.00 target as support, but entered the regular session back above 1463.50 to suggest that selling pressure had been absorbed. That didn’t prevent an intraday swoon that probed 1447.00-1449.00 down to 1445.00. Closing above 1455.00 would have signaled sellers gained no traction for their efforts (again), but it was still being tested at the close. Now a close above 1463.50 would target new highs near 1480.00, and a close under 1447.00 would trigger a bigger drop underway.

Dollar Basket Jun (DXM) The downleg is getting complacent. Monday’s action had fulfilled any downside objective to allow a bottom to form, but did not require a bottom to form. In fact, Tuesday’s open gapped down and probed fresh lows. But that gap down was slightly above Monday’s intraday low, and the gap back up to Monday’s close was nearly filled. Ultimately, the session closed under Monday’s low, but above Tuesday morning’s ranging. Once again, there is potential to rally without leaving any unfinished business below, but no signal requiring it.

30-year Treasury Jun (USM) A big correction, if it’s over. Monday’s second consecutive session of “ineffectual pessimism” produced a gap up Tuesday that tested the 119’04 bounce limit. Higher highs intraday tested 119’18, whose recovery would signal a much bigger rally underway to 120’16-120’25. Closing back under 119’04 would have been optimal to confirming the downleg targeting 117’00 was still in-play.

Crude Oil May (CLK) The reaction down has outgrown itself. The rally’s 113.00 target had reacted down substantially Monday. It extended down even further Tuesday. RSIs diverged only modestly on an overnight test of the rally’s prior target at 108.25-108.50 as support. Its bounce to 110.20 was reversed intraday to probe 105.50. And the trend remains down so long as 107.00-107.50 holds as resistance. A lot of selling pressure has been expended very quickly, increasing the potential to recover 107.00-107.50. Extending down any further without first refueling sellers would make a long-entry more interesting.

Natural Gas May (NGK) Little interest. Monday’s rally only left unfinished business below, so no buy signal was triggered. Higher highs might have fulfilled a short-entry parameter, and still might. But otherwise, I am still only monitoring the pattern.

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Daily Spot coverage schedule is: Currencies (Mon), Metals (Tue), Energies (Wed), Rates (Thu), Weekender (Fri).