Daily Spot

A weekly summary of one complex, including daily updates of other developments elsewhere.[pay]

Dollar Basket Jun (DXM) Bottoming can now begin. Or, not. Monday’s fresh low extended down to mimic Friday’s action. RSIs diverged positively, so a low may be forming, but there is no active signal. The trend otherwise remains down so long as bounces hold 75.50 as resistance.

Gold Jun (GCM) Tired, but not yet toppling. If Monday’s gap down didn’t prove that Friday’s session didn’t gain traction, then Monday afternoon’s lower lows did. The 1461.90 low probed Thursday’s “lower prior highs” as support, but a little too late for it to produce a bounce. Nevertheless, the session did close while retesting its opening gap down, after spending the entire session in negative territory. This “ineffectual pessimism” keeps the door open to one more intraday high attacking 1480.00. Closing under 1463.50 would target 1447.00-1449.00.

30-year Treasury Jun (USM) Optimism doesn’t form a bottom. Gapping down Monday helped to confirm that Friday’s session-long bounce gained no traction. But the morning’s lower low stopped short of probing Friday’s low before recovering to probe Friday’s highs. This is still too optimistic for a confirmed downleg that has yet to meet its 117.00 target. Any bounce is still likely to fail.

Crude Oil May (CLK) Can’t the Colonel afford his own subscription? Apparently someone informed Kadaffy that Crude Oil’s target was 113.00, and that it had been met. His leverage on the west had peaked, so he began a cease-fire negotiation. Crude fell to 109.38. That’s a fast retracement for a newly-met target. Obviously, the level is valid resistance, but the downleg probably isn’t. Not, yet. I’ll gauge another bounce for its potential to launch a more durable drop. A close back under 108.25-108.50 may not extend down, but it would confirm the top is in.

Natural Gas May (NGK) Zigging, not zagging, and not bottoming. Despite being likely to mimic Friday’s drop, Monday’s session bounced. Thursday’s intraday spike down (in reaction to EIA) was fully retraced back to its origin, which is also natural resistance. This only prolongs the downleg by helping to refuel sellers. The next lower target at 3.97 remains outstanding.

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Daily Spot coverage schedule is: Currencies (Mon), Metals (Tue), Energies (Wed), Rates (Thu), Weekender (Fri).

A weekly summary of one complex, including daily updates of other developments elsewhere.[pay]

Dollar Basket Jun (DXM) Wait, it gets worse. Friday’s gap down exceeded the next target of 75.50. The balance of the session extended down intraday to close under the morning’s low. That’s traction. And Mondays tend to mimic Friday’s action, so lower lows are likely to start the week. The only bottoming pattern available would be a pivot reversal (i.e. gap up in a downtrend, probe fresh trend lows intraday, then recover to close above the mornign’s high). Otherwise, the trend remains down.

Gold Jun (GCM) Officially, a bubble. Friday’s open gapped up and extended higher intraday, but closed back at (or in the process of testing) the open’s gap up print. So, buyers gained no traction. This is in-line with Thursday’s new highs also not having gained traction, after Wednesday’s new highs on ineffectual optimism didn’t gain traction to confirm Tuesday’s breakout. Obviously, this doesn’t prevent higher highs, but it is only stretching the rubber band further away from the requirement to eventually test 1447.00-1449.00. So, the eventual retracement is likelier to be aggressive, and more difficult to recover.

30-year Treasury Jun (USM) Time to refuel sellers? Friday’s fresh low might appear to have fulfilled the minimum objective of Wednesday’s breakout, which was confirmed Thursday. But the new low was a gap down whose reaction only trended up intraday. This does not fulfill the spirit of the confirmed signal, so lower lows remain likely, as the 117’00 target remains in-play. Friday night’s budget deal might offer some near-term relief back up to 119’04, but the trend remains down so long as 119’18 isn’t recovered.

Crude Oil May (CLK) Bubble character. Friday’s open gapped up and extended considerably higher intraday, and even higher after the close to fulfill the 113.00 target. That was the reward for not having begun a downleg from the 108.25-108.50 target. But the consequence for extending higher first, instead of a dip refueling buyers, should be that the 113.00 target is rejected. Immediate weakness Monday would not be credible, but closing down or opening lower Tuesday would launch at least a sizable retracement, if not a durable downleg.

Natural Gas May (NGK) Coming into a low. The 3.97 lower target was attacked while Friday’s fresh lows fulfilled the minimum objective of Wednesday’s confirmed breakout. Lower lows are likely Monday. Bouncing Monday afternoon from testing 3.97 would form a credible bottom. Bouncing too quickly – regardless of whether having tested 3.97 already – would be sellers refueling, instead.

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A weekly summary of one complex, including daily updates of other developments elsewhere.[pay]

30-year Treasury Jun (USM) Sellers aren’t wasting any time. Thursday’s new lows confirmed Wednesday’s breakout by gapping down. The second consecutive new relative low close confirms the downleg underway next targeting 117’00.

Dollar Basket Jun (DXM) Rate hike reaction isn’t lasting. It’s not surprising that Thursday’s reaction up on the ECB interest rate hike was not permanent or durable. Higher prior lows that had been tested optimistically on the way down held Thursday as resistance. There remains unfinished business below at 75.50-75.55.

Gold Jun (GCM) Never send ineffectual optimism to do confirmation’s job. Wednesday’s ineffectual optimism undermined its higher close from confirming Tuesday’s breakout, despite closing higher. No surprise, then, that Thursday didn’t extend higher. Any higher high now would be likely to fail substantially. Meahwhile, there is more potential for dipping back to 1447.00-1449.00 and a break under 1447.00 would signal a downleg underway already.

Crude Oil May (CLK) New upleg, or false break? Thursday finally broke to fresh highs after having ranged around the 108.25-108.50 target area since Sunday night. Not having rejected the higher highs intraday allows room up to 113.00 before a reversal back under 108.25 can seal a top.

Natural Gas May (NGK) Nowhere to go but down. Extended down Thursday to its next objective at 4.08, and then some. It was the second consecutive fresh low close below the prior range, confirming Wednesday’s break. At least one more lower low is required. One more lower target is in-play at 3.97, whose test may fulfill the drop. A bottom Friday is possible, but not likely.

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A weekly summary of one complex, including daily updates of other developments elsewhere.[pay]

Crude Oil May (CLK) Don’t get too comfy up here. Wednesday was another day of ranging around this upleg’s 108.25-108.50 target, ranging that began Sunday night. Not yet having reacted down negatively, a negative reaction now would be suspicious, and probably a buying opportunity for recovering to one more higher high. Otherwise, probing a fresh high and then closing negative would start to confirm a top has been forming.

Natural Gas May (NGK) Down, for now. Tuesday’s close under 4.25 was still above last week’s lows that had also tested 4.25. But that didn’t prevent extending down Wednesday to fresh lows at 4.15. Now 4.30 must be recovered just to avoid extending the drop further, next targeting 4.07.

Dollar Basket Jun (DXM) Couldn’t avoid lower lows, and maybe still can’t. Monday and Tuesday’s optimistic lows – that attacked last Thursday’s 75.94 low without probing it – made it unlikely to avoid dipping more aggressively down to 75.75 or 75.50. Gapping down and extending lower Wednesday morning soon began testing 75.75, which lasted through the close. Its 75.69 low stopped optimistically short of filling a 2-1/2 week-old outstanding gap, so lower lows remain likely.

Gold Jun (GCM) Confirmation, sort of. Wednesday’s open gapped up and firmed further to quickly fulfill its next higher target at 1463.50. A pullback intraday fell to within a few dimes of the 1455.00 target as support. Buyers didn’t gain traction since the 1358.30 close was under the 1461.40 opening print. So, despite being the second consecutive new high close, its confirmation of Tuesday’s breakout is suspicious. At least a pullback to 1447.00-1449.00 is becoming likelier.

30-year Treasury Jun (USM) Sellers brought it, anyway. It’s surprising that Wednesday’s selling produced a close under 119’25. Last week’s tests of the critical support were rejected by bounces. But Tuesday morning’s failed gap up kept the trap door open, and Wednesday’s session fell through it by losing nearly a full point to close under 119’00. A second consecutive lower close Thursday would confirm the breakout, next targeting 117.00.

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Daily Spot coverage schedule is: Currencies (Mon), Metals (Tue), Energies (Wed), Rates (Thu), Weekender (Fri).

A weekly summary of one complex, including daily updates of other developments elsewhere.[pay]

Gold Jun (GCM) Seems a little quick, but new highs are not a sell signal. A big day Tuesday, which caught a surge in reaction to 10:00’s econ report. The surge probed recent resistance at 1439.00, whose recovery would target 1455.00. And that target was met, too. Closing under 1449.00 and 1447.00 would reverse momentum down. Otherwise, the next higher target is 1463.50.

Dollar Basket Jun (DXM) Sunny side up, usually ends down. Not having probed Thursday’s low Monday, no shorts were trapped to be squeezes, so Monday’s firming was likely to retrace. And it did retrace Tuesday, almost back down to Monday’s low. Almost, but still no probing under Monday’s low, so still no trapped shorts. That’s still too optimistic for a bottom, so a rally might not form prior to probing 75.75, 75.55, or even 75.00.

30-year Treasury Jun (USM) Day late, and a point short. Tuesday’s open tried to extend higher after Monday’s close had failed to close above 120’16. So, the morning’s probe above prior highs around 120’25 was reversed back into negative territory to test 119’25 as support. Closing under 119’25 would signal a new downleg underway targeting 117’00. Otherwise, room to fluctuate back up to 120’16.

Crude Oil May (CLK) Holding its target, but not yet toppy. Nothing new Tuesday, except a little more volatility. Otherwise, the session only retested the same 108.25-108.50 target area that has been tested since Sunday night. There’s still potential for forming a top in this area, but there is not yet any signal.

Natural Gas May (NGK) Cutting it close for accumulation. Closed Tuesday under 4.25, but still above the two prior intraday tests of 4.25. Closing above 4.34 would signal the selling was finally absorbed, and closing above 4.44 would trigger a new upleg.

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Daily Spot coverage schedule is: Currencies (Mon), Metals (Tue), Energies (Wed), Rates (Thu), Weekender (Fri).