Daily Spot

A weekly summary of one complex, including daily updates of other developments elsewhere.[pay]

Dollar Basket Jun (DXM) A well-deserved rest. Monday’s flat-to-higher ranging was natural following Friday’s volatile swing. A better bottom would have been signaled by probing Friday’s low before bouncing. Already firming – and only firming – suggests a more ranging is likely Tuesday.

Gold Jun (GCM) Try, try again. Get shut-down again. Monday’s gap up to 1439.00 resistance was retraced back down to the 1430.00 area. Buyers gained no traction, so extending higher would require gapping up Tuesday above 1439.00, which would target 1455.00. Any weaker opening strength – or simply opening weak – would likely resolve lower. Closing under 1424.00 would signal a new downleg underway.

30-year Treasury Jun (USM) Too much, too soon. The expected backing-and-filling was done Sunday night down to 120’00. A pullback during regular trading hours might have been more productive, since Monday’s intraday extension of Friday’s slow and steady recovery up to 120’27 was retraced entirely at the close. Not even 120’16 was recovered. Potential for resuming the recovery remains alive so long as pullbacks hold any test of 120’07 as support.

Crude Oil May (CLK) The rally’s end? Sunday night’s action easily fulfilled the 108.25-108.50 target area. Its retest formed a Double Top following a pullback whose interim low was probed into Monday’s open down to 107.58. An intraday test of the target area remained likely – it was attacked up to 108.60, retracing more than 61.8% of the overnight Double Top, which also makes higher highs likely. Temporary higher highs, as the target has been met.

Natural Gas May (NGK) The door opens to another rally attempt. Monday’s action mimicked Friday by repeating its intraday weakness that probed under 4.25, and also its recovery back above 4.35. However, the close above 4.35 was not repeated. That’s irrelevant since sellers didn’t gain any traction. But a valid recovery leg should become obvious by Tuesday’s close or Wednesday’s open to gain ground before Thursday’s EIA report.

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Daily Spot coverage schedule is: Currencies (Mon), Metals (Tue), Energies (Wed), Rates (Thu), Weekender (Fri).

A weekly summary of one complex, including daily updates of other developments elsewhere.[pay]

Dollar Basket Jun (DXM) Whiplash remedy: Bed rest. The only way to avoid lower lows following Thursday’s drop was to gap up above its 76.20 intraday highs. Friday did that, and so much more, extending up sharply to new relative highs at 76.87. Then it fell all the way back into negative territory.

Friday’s low filled the gap back down to Thursday’s close – and held on a closing basis. So, despite plunging from Friday’s high, sellers didn’t gain traction on Friday’s close. So much volatility without any net move suggests non was left on the table. Its effects should dissipate over the weekend. But lower lows remain unavoidable if another recovery isn’t attempted by Tuesday morning.

Gold Jun (GCM) Make, or break. Friday’s opening plunge from the 1439.00 area retraced all of Thursday’s gain from Wednesday’s closing test of 1424.00 – all the way down to 1413.50. Its 1430.00 close retraced 61.8% of the intraday drop, so opening Monday back under 1424.00 would signal another downleg underway. Otherwise, recovering another dip under 1424.00 would all but marginalize sellers to allow new highs up to 1455.00.

30-year Treasury Jun (USM) Accumulation, waiting for a trigger. Despite gapping down to prior lows at 119’20, Friday’s close had recovered well into positive territory at 120’16. The gap open was not a new low, warning immediately that its sellers were not substantial. Even the impending weekend’s illiquidity couldn’t help a new low intraday from extending down. Friday’s low does not require being retested, and closing positive gave buyers a benefit of the doubt – although closing just a little higher, above 120’16, would have been a buy signal. A little backing and filling down to 120’02-120’07 Monday can precede extending the recovery, so long as 119’25 support holds on a closing basis.

Crude Oil May (CLK) Target closing in. Friday’s rally to new highs was still short of the 108.25-108.50 target. This is not a market that necessarily mimics Friday’s action on Mondays, so there’s no assurance of extending higher Monday. But extending higher anyway to fulfill the target and then close back under Thursday’s 105.50 low would seal a top and reverse momentum down sharply.

Natural Gas May (NGK) Its strength is that sellers are weak. The 4.44 buy signal wasn’t likely to trigger on its first test, not when that first test came so quickly after Thursday’s steep intraday recovery. Likelier was one or two days of backing and filling down to the 4.30-4.35 area. The area was tested already throughout Friday, which closed back above 4.35. I would not be surprised if this support were retested Monday. The pattern is still bullish so long as 4.35 holds as support on a closing basis.

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Daily Spot coverage schedule is: Currencies (Mon), Metals (Tue), Energies (Wed), Rates (Thu), Weekender (Fri).

A weekly summary of one complex, including daily updates of other developments elsewhere.[pay]

30-year Treasury Jun (USM) No news wasn’t good news. Thursday’s early volatility seemed like Friday’s Employment Situation report had been released already. Despite the open gapping up from Wednesday’s 120’06 close, through 120’16 to probe 120’25, it was all retraced into negative territory down to 119’23.

Just closing back in positive territory does avoid signaling that sellers gained any traction. But failing to close above 120’16 and 120’25 after testing them intraday also means buyers gained no traction for their efforts. And their traction was needed for helping to absorb any unfavorable reaction to Friday’s report.

Closing under 119’25 would have made a negative reaction likely to the Employment report. Closing positive instead, there is at least potential to retrace and even to reverse the initial knee-jerk reaction. But there is no indication of that ultimate reversal’s direction, not until closing Friday beyond either end of the 119’25-120’16 range.

Dollar Basket Jun (DXM) About that warning shot across the bow... Sellers had not gained traction on Wednesday’s steep drop. But buyers didn’t gain traction, either, from the recovery attempt. That left the pattern vulnerable to extend down, and it did extend down sharply overnight. That was the less likely resolution, the likelier resolution being to retest the week’s 76.70 highs on the way to filling an outstanding gap at 77.00. But this detour could extend down to 75.85 or 75.60 before another rally effort can begin. Gapping up above 76.35 might be able to squeeze higher into the weekend anyway.

Gold Jun (GCM) Something bigger is brewing. Wednesday’s close was in the process of testing 1426’00. That didn’t signal the bounce would extend higher, and it didn’t prevent it. Bouncing was the less likely scenario, but the bounce did extend higher to fulfill its 1439.00 target early Thursday morning. The balance of the session ranged sideways. There was no basing that required testing 1439.00, and there is no unfinished business above. Extending higher again anyway would all but ensure new highs probing 1455.00. Otherwise, a close under 1424.00 would signal a new downleg underway.

Crude Oil May (CLK) Influx of buyers only trip themselves. One or two extra days spent consolidating Monday’s drop did not make a rally attempt any less likely. But the delay did make the rally unlikely to be durable. The rally was finally attempted by Thursday’s gap up that extended to probe last week’s high. New highs remain likely, targeting 108.25-108.50 so long as pullbacks now hold 105.50. But the delay makes the rally likely to form a much more durable top.

Natural Gas May (NGK) That was quick. EIA triggered a retest of Wednesday’s low, filling the gap back down to Tuesday’s close, while also probing Tuesday’s low. All unfinished business below was neutralized, allowing a retracement of the excessively pessimistic drop from 4.55. The recovery didn’t wait long after neutralizing attractions below. It didn’t even wait an entire session. The drop was quickly absorbed to close back up near 4.44, whose recovery on a closing basis would signal the next upleg underway.

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Daily Spot coverage schedule is: Currencies (Mon), Metals (Tue), Energies (Wed), Rates (Thu), Weekender (Fri).

A weekly summary of one complex, including daily updates of other developments elsewhere.[pay]

Gold Jun (GCM) Wild ranging deserves a narrow day. Wednesday’s wild session closed while testing 1426.00 resistance. Recovering it would have extended the bounce to 1439.00, and potentially to new highs above 1450.00. Now noise has room to fluctuate down to 1416.50, whose break would signal that last week’s drop was extending down, next targeting 1398.00.

Dollar Basket Jun (DXM) Scary dip still contained within the range. Wednesday’s open quickly attacked the week’s two ~76.70 highs. A sudden, steep and substantial drop probed Monday’s 76.29 low, and ended the session trying to recover Monday’s 76.35 close. Immediately recovering Thursday above Tuesday’s 76.50 close would signal the rogue drop had been absorbed, and that momentum was reversing up, likely to end Thursday closer to 77.00. Otherwise, delaying the recovery any further could essentially derail it altogether.

30-year Treasury Jun (USM) Little time left to greet Friday from strength. Tuesday’s fresh low did not extend down on Wednesday, and the 119’28 sell signal did not trigger. But that doesn’t mean buyers gained traction. In fact, session highs held tests of 120’07, which became resistance after breaking its support during last week’s decline. Back above 120’16-120’25 would signal a recovery attempt underway targeting 122’00. Not recovering on Thursday would prevent greeting Friday’s Employment report from safer ground, essentially signaling a downleg underway targeting 117’00.

Crude Oil May (CLK) Slow-playing the recovery could kill it. Last week’s multi-session consolidation around the rally’s 105.50 target eventually needed a dip to stretch the rubber band. That dip came Monday, and mostly contained Tuesday’s price action. It contained Wednesday’s price action, too. The stretched rubber band isn’t so stretched anymore. A fresh high above 105.45 would target a retest of prior highs up to 108.25, but not necessarily a new rally leg.

Natural Gas May (NGK) One dip away from a bottom. Or a break. Wednesday firmed after two consecutive session had dropped 14-15 cents each from intraday highs. Still monitoring for another accumulation pattern to form for a new rally leg to begin, like closing above 4.45 or holding a retest of 4.25 support.

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Daily Spot coverage schedule is: Currencies (Mon), Metals (Tue), Energies (Wed), Rates (Thu), Weekender (Fri).

A weekly summary of one complex, including daily updates of other developments elsewhere.[pay]

Gold Apr (GCJ) A well-deserved inside day. Monday’s 1411.00 gap open was tested before Tuesday’s open. Its natural support absorbed selling pressure to produce a bounce back up to Monday’s highs. Once again, 1324.00 was attacked but not recovered, and once again 1416.00 held as support. Closing under 1412.00 would trigger a downleg next targeting 1404.00. Above 1424.00 would target 1437.00.

Dollar Basket Jun (DXM) Tempered optimism. Monday’s 76.65 gap open was retested at Tuesday’s gap up. The balance of the session ranged narrowly sideways. Although it all developed exclusively in positive territory, after gapping up, it was not “ineffectual optimism” since no fresh high was probed. Avoiding a close under 76.35 would allow at least one more higher high at 77.00.

30-year Treasury Jun (USM) Too slow to sell. Tuesday’s opening dip gapped down and the gap was recovered into positive territory. Price then trended down to new lows at 119’19. A bounce into the close was ranging narrowly around the 119’25 sell signal, preventing the 119’24 close from triggering it clearly. That doesn’t rob sellers of their traction, but it does help to absorb selling pressure. The optimal bottom would probe a fresh low and then recover to close positive.

Crude Oil Jun (CLM) Shorts are trapped, just need to be squeezed. Tuesday’s gap down to the 103.00 area was either extending a downleg, or confirming that Monday’s gap down was a false break. Monday’s ~104.85  highs weren’t recovered, but they were still being tested at the close. Extending immediately higher Wednesday would target a retest of recent highs around 108.50. Otherwise, a decline may yet be forming.

Natural Gas May (NGK) A correction-like drop. Monday’s reaction down from the rally’s 4.55 target extended lower Tuesday. Not as steeply, albeit just as productively, dropping another 15 cents down to 4.25. I’m still monitoring for a new setup. Meanwhile, the quick drop makes a new downleg less likely.

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Daily Spot coverage schedule is: Currencies (Mon), Metals (Tue), Energies (Wed), Rates (Thu), Weekender (Fri).