Daily Spot

A weekly summary of one complex, including daily updates of other developments elsewhere.[pay]

Dollar Basket Jun (DXM) Working higher, despite the down-day. Monday’s gap up was in-line with mimicking Friday’s action, but the balance of the session fell into negative territory. The gap up wanting to be retested should limit the pullback to 76.05-76.10, and should help to resume the rally targeting 76.95-77.00.

Gold Apr (GCJ) Misplaced buying pressure. Monday’s opening gap down to test 1416.00 came after Friday’s low had held a test of 1424.00 that robbed sellers of their traction. Extending down further wasn’t likely, so a bounce attacked 1424.00. Monday’s 1411.00 open will want to be filled, which should inhibit the bounce from gaining any traction.

30-year Treasury Jun (USM) It’s time to recover, or not to recover at all. Despite gapping down Monday and probing fresh lows, the 120’16 recovery signal was tested by noon. Testing 120’16 without recovering it now makes the new buy signal a close above 120’25. Closing under 119’28 would signal a bigger downleg underway targeting 117’02.

Crude Oil Jun (CLM) Dumping ballast, flushing out sellers, same thing. [May contract is priced about 25-cents less than June] Last week’s several consecutive days of ranging narrowly around the rally’s 105.75 target finally pulled back Monday. The pullback is not a buy signal, but it clears the way for a buy signal triggered above 104.82 targeting new highs. Otherwise, a close under 103.62 would probably take new highs off the table.

Natural Gas May (NGK) Target met. Sunday night’s open immediately tested the 4.55 target. A reaction down before the open was recovered to fulfill 4.55 intraday. And a more sizable reaction down left no unfinished business above. Closing under 4.30 would suggest the rally was done. There is otherwise no active pattern without first closing above 4.55.

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Daily Spot coverage schedule is: Currencies (Mon), Metals (Tue), Energies (Wed), Rates (Thu), Weekender (Fri).

A weekly summary of one complex, including daily updates of other developments elsewhere.[pay]

Dollar Basket Jun (DXM) Bigger buying pressure still moving in. Friday’s strong rally to new recovery highs at 76.56 was a victory for Thursday’s “ineffectual pessimism” over Thursday’s “ineffectual optimism.” It wasn’t a fair fight. A rally was already made possible by Tuesday’s flat close at the lows, and make likely by Wednesday’s gap up to prior highs. Gold’s own bearish behavior and reversal signal also suggests a stronger Dollar. Follow-through after the weekend is likely since currencies tend to mimic Friday’s action on Monday.

Gold Apr (GCJ) The sentiment shift is sliding quickly. Thursday’s rejection of the March 7 high’s test didn’t extend down immediately Friday. But it did extend down eventually to briefly test 1422.00. The second consecutive close back under 1437.00-1438.00 confirmed that buyers have lost traction. Closing under 1424.00 would signal sellers gaining traction for a new downleg, so long as 1437.00-1438.00 is not recovered on a closing basis.

30-year Treasury Jun (USM) Is timid selling necessarily bullish? The deeper pullback targeting 120’07 was fulfilled Friday down to 120’02, bouncing to close at 120’07. Quickly recovering 120’16 Monday would be likely to extend higher intraday. Closing above 120’25 would next target 122’00, whose own recovery would put into play 125’00. A second consecutive lower close Monday under Friday’s 120’02 low would make any bullish scenario unlikely.

Crude Oil Jun (CLM) The rally window has re-opened. Friday’s fourth consecutive session ranging around the corrective bounce’s 105.75 target is two days past suggesting that sellers weren’t yet going to retake control. Closing under 104.50 would suggest otherwise, but meanwhile there is potential to resume the rally targeting 109.00 and 113.00.

Natural Gas May (NGK) Absorbing sellers with little delay. Friday afternoon’s 15-cent surge to 4.50 proved that Thursday’s close was still in the process of testing the 4.35 pullback limit, and had not actually closed under it. Recovering 4.40 already confirmed that the 4.55 target remains in-play. This market tends to mimic Friday’s action on Monday, making follow-through likely. Above 4.55 would next target 4.70.

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Daily Spot coverage schedule is: Currencies (Mon), Metals (Tue), Energies (Wed), Rates (Thu), Weekender (Fri).

A weekly summary of one complex, including daily updates of other developments elsewhere.[pay]

30-year Treasury Jun (USM) Bulls procrastinating isn’t bullish. Thursday’s drop continued to deliver the consequences of having delayed 122’00‘s recovery, and of not already having used that time to refuel buyers. The pullback’s 120’17 target was met within 1 tick. Either that would suffice, or a much deeper dip is coming down to 120’09.

Dollar Basket Jun (DXM) Stuck in a narrow range? Thursday’s cash session reacted to Wednesday’s action not having extended its gap up. At least initially. Thursday morning’s dip stopped short of filling the gap back down to Tuesday’s close, and the afternoon’s recovery stopped short of probing Wednesday’s close. Sort of like being between a rock and a hard place. A fresh high would be credible for resuming the corrective bounce, but I wouldn’t position in anticipation of it without tightly trailing a stop.

Gold Apr (GCJ) Too optimistic, too quickly, too bad. March 7’s actual high was touched Thursday, after Wednesday’s touch of March 2’s pivotal high. Thursday’s probe was rejected solidly since buyers had not refueled in the interim. The close under 1437.00 sealed a top, and already extended down to 1423.70 after hours. Recovering 1438.00 would target fresh highs at 1450.00. Closing under 1424.00 would signal the trend is down and next targeting 1412.00 then 1404.00.

Crude Oil Jun (CLM) Ripe for sellers… three days ago. Thursday was the third consecutive close in the process of testing the corrective bounce’s 105.75 target. A close under 104.50 would signal a new downleg underway.

Natural Gas May (NGK) Too optimistic, too quickly, too bad, II. Thursday’s third consecutive gap up peaked quickly at 4.47, and EIA triggered a spike down to 4.35. The close was still testing 4.35, which needs to hold as support to maintain potential up to 4.55. Recovering 4.40 would signal the test had held, and that momentum had reversed up.

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Daily Spot coverage schedule is: Currencies (Mon), Metals (Tue), Energies (Wed), Rates (Thu), Weekender (Fri).

A weekly summary of one complex, including daily updates of other developments elsewhere.[pay]

Crude Oil Jun (CLM) Running out of steam at a big target. Wednesday didn’t back off from having met the 105.75 bounce target Tuesday. But price only firmed temporarily, and failed to close higher. A second consecutive higher close above 105.75 Thursday would have confirmed the 113.00 target is in-play. Meanwhile, the pattern is vulnerable to becoming toppy, if not to reversing down sharply under 105.25 and 104.50.

Natural Gas May (NGK) Rallying into resistance. Tuesday afternoon’s resumption of the rally didn’t skip a beat Wednesday by gapping up and extending higher intraday. The 4.40 target was easily exceeded, putting into play 4.55, so long as 4.35 holds as support. A downleg requires closing under 4.25. EIA report on Thursday morning.

Dollar Basket Jun (DXM) Stop and start rally. But for the gap back to Tuesday’s close, gapping up Wednesday above Tuesday’s highs left no unfinished business below. Although not retraced intraday, the open’s gap didn’t extend higher. Unless the gap were filled Thursday before extending higher, a corrective bounce is underway. Perhaps the Euro’s reaction to Portugal’s vote against austerity measures will spur things along.

Gold Apr (GCJ) Cruising higher… on fumes. The 1437.00-1438.00 target was met Wednesday morning. The balance of the session ranged narrowly around it, while also touching March 2’s “pivotal high” (the high prior to March 7’s 1445.70 actual high). Just touching the pivotal high all but assures also touching the actual high. Touching the actual high without first correcting down to 1432.00-1433.00 would make the actual high’s test likely to reverse down sharply.

30-year Treasury Jun (USM) Day late, dollar short. The consequence of delaying 122’00‘s recovery became obvious when Wednesday’s gap up to it was retraced entirely and back into negative territory. Closing just above 122’00 would now be less credible for resuming the rally targeting 125’00. An interim dip to 120’17 is likelier.

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Daily Spot coverage schedule is: Currencies (Mon), Metals (Tue), Energies (Wed), Rates (Thu), Weekender (Fri).

A weekly summary of one complex, including daily updates of other developments elsewhere.[pay]

Gold Apr (GCJ) Not much higher before more toppiness. Tuesday’s close was barely flat after probing fresh lows. A new downleg wasn’t going to get underway immediately, despite Monday’s ineffectual optimism. The session avoided closing under 1424.00 which would have signaled buyers losing momentum. One more rally effort would target 1437.00-1438.00.

Dollar Basket Jun (DXM) Selling pressure seems to be waning. Tuesday’s gap down immediately created unfinished business below. A rally would be inhibited by wanting to retest Tuesday’s 75.54 opening print. That may be what prevented the immediate recovery into positive territory from extending higher intraday. The balance of the session ranged very narrowly just above Monday’s close. A quick dip Wednesday that reverses back above 75.70 would be credible for launching a durable rally.

Japanese Yen (JYM) Maybe not the peak, but some intervention retrace is likely. The recent intervention’s to 1.2765-1.2785 was quickly retraced to back under all prior highs at 1.2200. The effect created an Island. A consolidation just under 1.2380 has had ample time to extend down if that were the next intention. A bounce to 1.2550 would refuel sellers for a bigger drop. Extending down first would target 1.2150-1.2160 where a more durable rally could be launched.

30-year Treasury Jun (USM) Do buyers need a further refueling dip? Tuesday’s inside day once again held 121’08, and once again further delayed a recovery back above 122’00 targeting 125’00. A dip down to 120’17 can’t be ruled out, and failing to hold it would target 119’18 before the next rally leg could begin.

Crude Oil Jun (CLM) Bounce target met. Tuesday’s gap down was absorbed and reversed up to fresh highs at the 105.75 target (basis Jun, 104.50 basis Mar). That was the minimum objective for a corrective bounce, and back under 103.05 would signal a new downleg underway. Delaying a new downleg would allow the bounce time to fluctuate up to prior highs at 108.75.

Natural Gas May (NGK) Giving optimists a benefit of the doubt. Tuesday afternoon’s rally to new highs at 4.35 signaled the rally has resumed, next targeting 4.40 and potentially 4.55. A deeper pullback first would have helped to refuel buyers, but the rally remains intact so long as 4.28 holds as support. Closing any lower would target 4.20 and potentially 4.09-4.13.

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Daily Spot coverage schedule is: Currencies (Mon), Metals (Tue), Energies (Wed), Rates (Thu), Weekender (Fri).