Daily Spot

A weekly summary of one complex, including daily updates of other developments elsewhere.[pay]

Dollar Basket Jun (DXM) New lows fulfilled unfinished business. Monday’s fresh low fulfilled the minimum objective of Thursday confirmed breakout. The open’s gap down was retraced to fill the gap from Friday’s close up to 76.00. Recovering it would trigger a bounce targeting 76.75, whose recovery would signal a new rally leg underway. Otherwise, the next lower target is 75.00.

Gold Apr (GCJ) Closing under the opens gap up isn’t strength. Sunday night’s rally exploited Friday’s close still having been the process of testing 1416.00 support. The open’s test of 1435.00 held a retest that pushed back down to session lows into the close. Buyers gained no traction for their efforts, like Friday. Like Monday, extending higher would require gapping up, probably above 1440.00. Closing under 1424.00 would signal the recovery attempt had ended.

30-year Treasury Jun (USM) Prior target still resisting. Monday’s small gap down soon extended to within 1 tick of Friday’s low. The retest of last week’s “lower prior highs” as support held, and the close recovered 121’08. Recovering 122’00 on a closing basis would still signal the 122’00 target is in-play. No further dipping to 121’08 should be needed first, unless sellers are gaining traction.

Crude Oil Apr (CLJ) Baby steps to the target. Sunday night’s rally attacked Thursday nights high almost to within $1 of the corrective bounce’s 104.50 target. A pullback into Monday’s close didn’t gain traction. The bounce target remains in-play so long as 101.50 holds as support.

Natural Gas May (NGK) At least it’s predictable. Monday mimicked Friday’s choppy, range-bound session. An intraday probe of fresh highs above 4.30 was retraced to end back under the rally’s initial 4.25 target. Two days without extending higher probably require a pullback to refuel buyers. Back under 4.20 would target 4.09-4.13, to launch the next rally leg targeting 4.35-4.40, and potentially 4.55.

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Daily Spot coverage schedule is: Currencies (Mon), Metals (Tue), Energies (Wed), Rates (Thu), Weekender (Fri).

A weekly summary of one complex, including daily updates of other developments elsewhere.[pay]

Dollar Basket Jun (DXM) No bailout here. Gapping down Friday removed any potential for Thursday’s own gap down to become an Island. The drop extended down into the afternoon, a second consecutive new relative low close that confirmed Thursday’s breakout. Mondays tend to mimic Friday’s price action in currencies, so lower lows are likely. At least one more lower low is required anyway due to the confirmed breakout. Closing back above 76.06 would signal a corrective bounce targeting 76.30 first.

Gold Apr (GCJ) One-day detour narrowly avoids reversing down. Sometimes, two ineffectual optimisms do cancel each other out. Not resolving down immediately had potential for extending the bounce up to 1424.00. Thursday’s close above 1399.00 extended higher to the target, which pushed back down after RSIs diverged negatively on its retest. The close held 1416.00 support, whose break would have signaled momentum already reversing down. Now closing under 1412.00 would resume the decline.

30-year Treasury Jun (USM) Look out above. Friday’s open dropped to test 121’08, and also spiked down to test the prior week’s “lower prior highs” as support. The gap back to Monday’s close was narrowly missed, but the session closed positive. Several hours into the close were spent hovering pessimistically just below 122’00, which is potentially bullish from a contrarian perspective, leaving potential to resume the rally up to 125’00.

Crude Oil Apr (CLJ) No short zone. Libya’s cease fire declaration triggered a $3 drop that bottomed just above 100.00, whose recovery Thursday had put into play 104.50. RSI diverged positively on its retest following a brief bounce, producing another bounce. The 104.50 target remains in-play so long as 100.00 holds as support, and potentially 107.25. Closing under 100.00 would trigger a steeper and deeper downleg underway.

Natural Gas May (NGK) It’s real. Friday’s close was flat with its 4.23 open. The 4.25 target was fulfilled intraday. This doesn’t qualify as a second consecutive higher close that would confirm Thursday’s breakout. And Mondays tend to mimic Fridays in this market. Any early strength would be suspicious, but I would give it a benefit of the doubt considering the bigger picture – a benefit of the doubt, and a relatively tight trailing stop.

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Daily Spot coverage schedule is: Currencies (Mon), Metals (Tue), Energies (Wed), Rates (Thu), Weekender (Fri).

A weekly summary of one complex, including daily updates of other developments elsewhere.[pay]

Dollar Basket Jun (DXM) Plunge not surprising after buyers doubled down on the crazy. Thursday’s second probe above 77.05 was no more likely than Monday’s to recover, especially after closing back under 77.05.

Unfinished business below – a probe under prior lows – made any interim rally effort unlikely to gain traction. Gapping down under prior lows may have been overkill. Without extending down intraday, the session formed “ineffectual pessimism” that could form an Island.

Gapping up above 76.60 would trigger a quick rally up to 78.00 before reversing to retest the Island. Otherwise, any lesser immediate strength would likely fail and reverse back down to fresh lows.

Gold Apr (GCJ) Two “ineffectual optimisms” don’t cancel each other out. Wednesday’s close under 1399.00 wasn’t repeated Thursday. But sellers still get a benefit of the doubt since Thursday was an inside day. And it was an inside that trended up, which is another form of “ineffectual optimism” – a second consecutive day of it. Any immediate weakness Friday would be credible for extending down sharply. But any further delay in exploiting the “ineffectual optimism” would be vulnerable to retesting 1424.00.

30-year Treasury Jun (USM) Correcting the ill-gotten gains to get more. Thursday’s close just under 122’00 was really still in the process of testing it. Immediately rallying at the open and into the weekend would help to confirm the 125’00 target remains in-play. Otherwise, the pullback has room down to 121’08 before sellers would start gaining traction.

Crude Oil Apr (CLJ) Confirmed: The drop’s confirmation was premature. Suspicions proved well-founded that Wednesday’s second consecutive close under 99.00 wasn’t low enough. Thursday’s session-long rall extended to 101.99. Another close under 99.00 would get the same benefit of the doubt that a steeper and deeper downleg has begun. Otherwise, this bounce is targeting 104.50, potentially fresh highs up to 107.25.

Natural Gas May (NGK) Huge intraday rally almost worth the wait. Finally! As suspected, when the 4.02 buy signal finally triggered on a closing basis, the close was likely to be up above 4.15. In fact, gapping up above 4.02, and after retesting it as support at the open, an assist from EIA surged up to 4.15. The balance of the session trended up further, to within 1-2 cents of the 4.25 target. Already. The next higher targets are 4.35 and 4.40, with potential to 4.55.

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Daily Spot coverage schedule is: Currencies (Mon), Metals (Tue), Energies (Wed), Rates (Thu), Weekender (Fri).

A weekly summary of one complex, including daily updates of other developments elsewhere.[pay]

Crude Oil Apr (CLJ) A dubious confirmation of a sell signal. Wednesday was the second consecutive close under the 99.00 sell signal. But it was only moderately lower, and well above Tuesday’s lows. As I noted during the Market Tours, that is hardly optimal. I would be suspicious of any delay in extending down forcefully. And I wouldn’t want to be short above 100.00 waiting for a close back under 99.00, exposed to a detour up to 104.25 or new highs.

Natural Gas May (NGK) Still teasing the buy signal. Spending Wednesday fluctuating around the 4.02 buy signal is at least not equivalent to rejecting it. Perhaps Thursday’s EIA report can sort things out.

Dollar Basket Jun (DXM) More ill-timed optimism. More adversity brought another rally effort, once again probing 77.05 and once again failing to close above it. Unfinished business below at new lows should still be tested. The delay may even add to the downside.

Gold Apr (GCJ) Ineffectual optimism. 1406.00 resistance held its test intraday Wednesday, and 1399.00 held through the close, all to maintain the decline’s momentum. Worse, the session formed “ineffectual optimism” by gapping up, probing prior highs and ranging exclusively in positive territory without closing above the morning’s highs. This setup normally resolves down immediately, even if only temporarily.

30-year Treasury Jun (USM) If not for a flight-to-safety... Tuesday’s test of the 122’00 target never fully corrected before overnight events renewed interest to rally sharply Wednesday. So long as 121’08 holds as support, the next higher target at 125’00 is in-play.

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Daily Spot coverage schedule is: Currencies (Mon), Metals (Tue), Energies (Wed), Rates (Thu), Weekender (Fri).

A weekly summary of one complex, including daily updates of other developments elsewhere.[pay]

Gold Apr (GCJ) Breaking down is easy to do-ooo. Tuesday’s bounce off of its lows closed under 1399.00 to maintain the downleg that is next targeting 1376.00 and 1343.50-1345.00. Intraday a bounce Wednesday has potential to 1406.00, but now must close under 1387.00 for sellers to gain further traction.

Dollar Basket Jun (DXM) Badly timed bounce. Monday’s extended dip back to the 76.60 “pivotal low” (the low prior to the actual low) all but requires an eventual test of the 76.46 actual low. Tuesday’s gap up to 77.29 was retraced entirely, instead of  closing above 77.05 to invalidate the attraction back to the low.

30-year Treasury Jun (USM) If they could all be this quick. Two consecutive closes above 119’26 had put into play 122’00. Tuesday’s open gapped up to the target, which tends to expend more energy than it creates. Retest of “lower prior highs” and filling the gap back to Monday’s ~120’21 close is likely to produce a retest of 122’00 as resistance.

Crude Oil Apr (CLJ) One more down would be one big down. Tuesday’s close under 99.00 signals a steeper and deeper downleg underway. The signal still needs confirmation from a second consecutive lower close Wednesday. Recovering 100.00 would invalidate the signal.

Natural Gas May (NGK) The signal couldn’t get any closer. Tuesday’s recovery from probing Monday afternoon’s lows as support, to probing 4.02 as resistance, is more evidence that sellers aren’t gaining any traction. But it isn’t yet a buy signal.

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Daily Spot coverage schedule is: Currencies (Mon), Metals (Tue), Energies (Wed), Rates (Thu), Weekender (Fri).