Daily Spot

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Trending Thursday night was enhanced by reaction to Friday morning’s Employment Situation report. Many instances of Thursday’s intraday trending were retraced or even reversed. And many of those instances had only delayed new trending efforts. Ultimately, the long bond resumed its decline while Crude Oil resumed its rally.

Dollar Basket Sep Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Thursday’s recovery was retraced almost entirely Friday. Ultimately, it was an “inside day,” trending downward, which is potentially bullish. Meanwhile, retracing back to the prior week’s low has all but assured a probe under Thursday’s low before bottoming.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Thursday’s rejection of its initial surge helped to confirm the pattern’s toppiness. It did not prevent Friday’s surge from retesting Thursday’s highs. The “inside day” did not gain traction, but may now probe a fresh high unless and until 1.2320 support were broken.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Recovering Wednesday afternoon’s 1609.00 high would have trapped interim sellers to fuel a durable rally. Friday’s $21 rally expended a lot of buying pressure only to peak upon testing 1609.00. Immediate strength Monday may be compelling for extending higher, but beware if not maintained on a closing basis. Closing under 1584.00 would confirm the trend has reversed down.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Friday’s surge filled the gap back up to Wednesday’s close, then dipped low enough to close back at 27.75. It’s not necessarily bullish, but immediate strength Monday would be credible for extending higher intraday, potentially putting into play 30.00-30.35.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Friday’s open gapped down to the 150-26 sell signal and extended down sharply to touch the prior Friday’s 149-08 low. That’s a lot of optimism to appear suddenly and prevent so much intraday momentum from piercing a prior low. Not likely. The drop remains intact so long as 150-00 now holds as resistance.

Crude Oil Sep Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Apparently, Friday’s NFP was finally the data set for which the week’s consolidation had been waiting. Gapping back up above 88.30 and trending sharply higher intraday closed easily above 89.50 testing 91.75 to signal a rally underway targeting at least 93.20.

Natural Gas Sep Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) Thursday’s plunge to test 2.91 was not extended Friday. It was probed pre-open down to 2.84, and post-open in the morning and afternoon down to 2.87. But it was likely only noise. Regardless, closing above 3.05 is the minimum requirement to signal momentum having reversed back up to retest the rally’s 3.26 target.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight As if reaction to Wednesday’s FOMC policy wasn’t volatile enough, reaction to ECB policy was only more so. But existing trending remained intact, as the Euro and Gold extended their recent declines.

Dollar Basket Sep Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Thursday’s gap down and spike to fresh lows was retraced entirely to another positive close, further confirming the recovery back to recent highs is underway.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Recent toppiness couldn’t avoid an initially favorable reaction to Thursday morning’s headlines. But it was absorbed, rejected, and reversed down sharply as the drop targeting recent lows extended.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Wednesday’s post-close retest of the morning’s low had held. Thursday morning’s surge on news was absorbed to probe back under Wednesday morning’s low to 1583.00. Closing under 1584.00 Friday would confirm the trend is down.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Thursday’s initial surge held a quick test of 27.75 resistance before reversing back down to fresh lows. There is no active signal.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Wednesday’s closing test of the 150-13 sell signal only produced a spike down to 149-16 on Thursday morning’s news. It recovered sharply through the morning to 152-04. Closing under 151-20 now makes 150-26 critical support whose break could renew the decline.

Crude Oil Sep Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Thursday’s gap down to test 87.00 spent the day ranging around Tuesday’s 87.50 low. Closing above 89.50 is still the minimum buy signal.

Natural Gas Sep Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) Weakness ahead of Thursday’s EIA report was not absorbed. At least, not yet. And not from anywhere near this week’s high. The reaction down from the rally’s 3.26 target is now testing 2.91. Closing back above 3.05 would trigger a new rally leg.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight FOMC’s policy statement roiled markets. Then markets un-roiled. Knee-jerk reactions were undone, creating a better opportunity for trending into the weekend.

Dollar Basket Sep Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Wednesday morning’s narrow ranging suddenly surged on the FOMC news. Fresh highs were probed, and maintained through the close, indicating the bounce could extend higher into the weekend.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Wednesday morning’s narrow ranging above 1.2300 suddenly caved on the FOMC news, plunging back to Monday’s 1.2240 prior low. The prior low held as support, but probably only temporarily before extending the decline back to recent lows.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) The reversal from Monday’s highs extended much lower Wednesday to 1598.00 even before the afternoon’s FOMC news. Lower lows down to 1595.00 were recovered back above 1598.00 so there is no new signal.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Wednesday morning’s gap down preceded the afternoon’s FOMC news. The news didn’t make matters worse, but there is no active signal.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Weakness ahead of Wednesday’s FOMC news had just touched the 150-13 sell signal. A spike up to 151-19 was retraced entirely almost as immediately. The sell signal remains valid.

Crude Oil Sep Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Tuesday’s drop down to 87.50 from testing 90.00 resistance bounced Wednesday to test the 89.25 buy signal. It was not triggered, but any early strength above its 89.47 test would be credible for extending higher intraday.

Natural Gas Sep Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) Wednesday’s ranging around Tuesday’s close — including two probes into negative territory — did not gain traction either way. Weakness ahead of Thursday’s EIA report is likely to be absorbed.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Natural Gas reacted down Tuesday after the morning’s fresh high fulfilled the rally’s initial target. The timing is interesting compared to Crude Oil, which finally reacted down from testing resistance. Could both markets be getting in synch with each other to rally in unison?

Dollar Basket Sep Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Tuesday’s weakness did not extend down, which would have confirmed Monday’s gap up was not “ineffectual optimism.” That remains relevant Wednesday because a fresh high for the week could gain traction to extend higher. There is otherwise no active signal.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Tuesday’s open gapped up instead of down, testing 1.2320 resistance. Monday’s gap down would be invalidated if its low were not broken through Wednesday’s close. Fresh highs Wednesday would be difficult to gain traction for extending higher.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) The rally’s 1622.00 target was probed temporarily Tuesday up to 1627.50 before reversing back down to new lows for the week at 1610.00. The failure to close above 1622.00 suggests that momentum is reversing down.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Tuesday’s probe above 28.25 was rejected to close back under 28.00, avoiding a buy signal targeting 30.00-30.35.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Monday’s corrective bounce retracing Friday’s plunge extended higher Tuesday, but only temporarily before reversing back down into negative territory. The close was essentially testing Monday’s 151-06 high as resistance. Closing back under 150-13 would signal the decline had resumed.

Crude Oil Sep Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Ongoing narrow ranging at 90.00 resistance finally pushed back when Tuesday dipped down to attack 87.50. Now 89.25‘s recovery should suffice to trigger a rally that initially targets 92.65-92.75.

Natural Gas Sep Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) Probing the rally’s 3.26 target by 2 cents Tuesday reacted down sharply to 3.16. Closing any lower would target the gap back down to Friday’s close at 3.00.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight The long bond’s bounce Monday may be enough to allow another downleg to begin. The bigger question may not be whether the downleg can resume, or when it will resume, but how big its next move will be, relative to Friday’s plunge.

Dollar Basket Sep Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Monday’s gap up never extended higher, and only ranged sideways. A second consecutive higher close would avoid labeling the pattern as “ineffectual optimism” which would be bearish.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Monday’s gap down proved that Friday’s retracement of its intraday surge had already reversed momentum down. Closing Tuesday under 1.2215 — preferably after gapping open under it — would confirm an attempt underway to fill the gap back down to last week’s 1.2065 close.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Monday’s narrow ranging around the bounce’s 1622.00 target without rejecting it makes some fresh high likely. Its failure to close above 1622.00 would be the first indication that momentum may be reversing down.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Monday morning’s surge to fresh highs at 28.10 extended higher after the close to test 28.20. Extending through 28.25 would target 30.00-30.35.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Monday’s corrective bounce came within 2 ticks of its 151-06 objective. A gap back to Friday’s 150-03 close was left outstanding, and should attract price back down to resume the decline.

Crude Oil Sep Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Still no movement Monday off of testing 90.00, further suggesting that 90.00 is not a valid buy signal — at least, not from this “standing start.” A dip that then recovers above 90.00 would be more credible for launching an upleg.

Natural Gas Sep Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) Monday’s gap up compensated for the rally being delayed by last week’s extended test of the 3.05 pullback limit. The 3.26 target was attacked to within 3 cents. The target remains in-play, with potential for exceeding it up to 3.40, so long as pullbacks now hold 3.10-3.13.

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