Daily Spot

A weekly summary of one complex, including daily updates of other developments elsewhere.[pay]

Dollar Basket Jun (DXM) Oops, too much. Monday’s gap down could have ended the pullback at 76.80. Extending down to 76.60 touched the prior downleg’s “pivotal low,” the low prior to the 76.46 actual low. That all but ensures eventually testing the 76.46 actual low. Immediately recovering to close back above 77.05 would suggest otherwise.

Gold Apr (GCJ) A brief window opens for new highs. Overnight strength filled the gap back up to last Wednesday’s 1432.00 close. And the reaction down held up above 1424.00 so that buyers wouldn’t lose traction. The session formed a Symmetrical Triangle. New highs targeting 1450.00 are likely so long as immediate weakness doesn’t close under  131416.00. Closing under 131412.00 would signal a Double Top had formed and a new downleg was underway.

30-year Treasury Jun (USM) Breakout confirmed, a little. A second consecutive close above 119’26 has confirmed Friday’s breakout. Not yet closing above Friday’s 120’29 high is a concern, but it can be mitigated by rallying further without delay. Regardless, 122’00 is in-play so long as 119’26 holds as support.

Crude Oil Apr (CLJ) Waiting for the other shoe. Closing Monday above 101.00 avoided triggering a steeper and deeper downleg. Closing under 99.00 would put it into play. A bounce meanwhile has room up to 104.50 before expecting a retest of the high up to 107.25 or even to 111.45.

Natural Gas May (NGK) Tease. Monday’s gap open above 4.02 was hopeful for proving last week’s testing of 3.93 was accumulative. The afternoon’s slide back toward Friday’s close deflated the balloon with sellers gaining traction. But a close above 4.03 is still needed to trigger a rally underway.

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Daily Spot coverage schedule is: Currencies (Mon), Metals (Tue), Energies (Wed), Rates (Thu), Weekender (Fri).

A weekly summary of one complex, including daily updates of other developments elsewhere.[pay]

Dollar Basket Mar (DXH) Waiting too much longer to resume rallying would be bearish. At least one characteristic of excessive optimism was already present in each of four consecutive sessions. Friday’s spike up was too much optimism for the overly-optimistic rally to maintain. This became especially so when the emotions that triggered the spike started subsiding. The 76.75 pullback target was met, with potential still outstanding down to 76.50 where a more durable rally leg can begin.

Gold Apr (GCJ) One more opportunity to probe new highs. Thursday’s drop to 1403.00 was retraced back to Thursday’s 1422.70 intraday high. So, Friday’s inside day was only noise. And it trended up, which is “ineffectual optimism.” Closing above 124’00 Monday would be credible for extending to new highs targeting 1429’50 and potentially 1450’00. Otherwise, failing to hold 1412’00 would signal a downleg already underway, targeting 1366.00.

30-year Treasury Jun (USM) First rally attempt was brief. Is another coming? Overnight action initially firmed in a flight-to-qualify after the earthquake. The prior week’s 120’26 high was finally retested. Despite probing prior highs, Friday’s close was flat to lower. Buyers gained no traction for their efforts. Closing back above 120’17 would target 122’00, but under 119’26 would start to signal sellers gaining traction for a new downleg.

Crude Oil Apr (CLJ) And I thought looking for a durable high at all could be too bearish. At Friday morning’s Market Tour I noted that I’ve begun questioning whether the 107.25 target is more valid than last Monday’s 106.95 peak. Not extending higher all week – instead dropping back under prior highs to 99.00 – at least confirms the upleg was as not durable. Not closing above 103.00 this Monday would suggest it was terminal. And closing under 100.00 would signal a new downleg underway targeting 91.00.

Natural Gas Apr (NGJ) Another week, and still no net movement. The week ended by closing back above 3.93 to prevent sellers from gaining traction. The entire week flirted with 3.93. A close above 4.02 would leave no unfinished business below to inhibit a rally effort targeting 4.25 and higher.

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Daily Spot coverage schedule is: Currencies (Mon), Metals (Tue), Energies (Wed), Rates (Thu), Weekender (Fri).

A weekly summary of one complex, including daily updates of other developments elsewhere.[pay]

30-year Treasury Jun (USM) Making its move. Thursday’s rally proved that the closes under 118’26 had been absorbed. The close above 119’26 extended back to the original rally’s 120’17 target intraday. Post-close higher highs retested last week’s 120’26 overnight high.

The past two weeks’ ranging has sporadically flashed signs that selling was sponsored by weak hands. So, Thursday’s rally doesn’t seem to be the product of a flight-to-safety amid the backdrop of a falling stock market. There is potential for extending up to 122’00, so long as pullbacks hold 119’26 as support.

Dollar Basket Mar (DXH) Doubling down on the optimism. Another gap up Thursday is a little overly-optimistic, which can be said for each of the past four sessions. Rallying further up to 78.10 would stretch the corrective bounce tightly. Dipping first to at least 76.75 or 76.50 could form a bottom capable of launching a more durable rally.

Gold Apr (GCJ) Patience can be a hindrance, too. Thursday’s gap down to new relative lows and $30 intraday drop proved the weakness of repeatedly closing under 1435.00. The drop was expected, but not before momentarily probing fresh highs. Now a probe of fresh highs may be more durable, and closing back above 1424.00 would target 1450.00. Closing under 1409.00 would target 1378.00.

Crude Oil Apr (CLJ) Slippery. Three consecutive sessions of “ineffectual pessimism” suggested that the rally would resume to its 107.25 and 111.45 targets. Extending the shallow dip only increased the rally potential. Thursday’s drop of nearly $4 intraday put that to the test. A complete recovery into late-afternoon suggested it had passed the test. And so long as 102.00 holds as support on a closing basis, the rally remains likely to resume.

Natural Gas Apr (NGJ) Untapped reserve. Another close under 3.92, despite Thursday morning’s EIA report (or because of it), again suggests that sellers may be gaining traction. A close above 4.03 would signal that buyers were gaining traction.

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Daily Spot coverage schedule is: Currencies (Mon), Metals (Tue), Energies (Wed), Rates (Thu), Weekender (Fri).

A weekly summary of one complex, including daily updates of other developments elsewhere.[pay]

Gold Apr (GCJ) Fallen, and can’t get up. A third consecutive close under 1435.00 Wednesday continues to indicate that buyers have lost traction. Failing to exploit the weakness suggests there is some unfinished business above.

Not that fresh highs would gain traction – in fact, I would expect a probe of higher highs above 1445.00 to be rejected back under 1436.00 – but a probe of higher highs gets likelier the longer a downleg is delayed.

Dollar Basket Mar (DXH) Too soon to get up. Spending the entire session in negative territory Wednesday without trending down bordered on being “ineffectual pessimism.” But lower lows down to 76.40 or 76.29 are likely. Maybe even to 76.21. Test and hold any of these, and a durable bottom can form.

30-year Treasury Jun (USM) Fallen, and trying to get up. Another close under 118’26 failed to confirm as expected, suggesting there is unfinished business above. There is room for noise back up to 119’26, but closing any higher would trigger a new upleg targeting 121’06 and higher. Thursday’s econ calendar is the week’s busiest, and includes a 30-year auction at 1:00pm ET.

Crude Oil Apr (CLJ) If only. Wednesday’s inside day gapped up for the session’s lone display of optimism. The balance of the day trended down. It was almost “ineffectual pessimism,” still capable of resolving up, but not required. Fresh highs would target 107.25 and 111.45.

Natural Gas Apr (NGJ) Can’t get up for anything. Tuesday’s close under 3.93 was too suspicious to automatically consider that sellers had gained traction. Wednesday’s opening surge proved they had not. There was only a little follow-through, but none if it was retraced. The opportunity wasn’t exploited otherwise. Buyers would gain traction above 4.03. Thursday’s EIA report should get something going either way.

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Daily Spot coverage schedule is: Currencies (Mon), Metals (Tue), Energies (Wed), Rates (Thu), Weekender (Fri).

A weekly summary of one complex, including daily updates of other developments elsewhere.[pay]

Crude Oil Apr (CLJ) Patience is a virtue. Despite gapping up to fresh highs and ranging exclusively in positive territory Monday was not “ineffectual optimism.” Its high is likely to be probed. So Tuesday’s dip only sweetened the pot. Higher highs still target 107.25, and probably also 111.45 to compensate for the delay.

Natural Gas Apr (NGJ) Impatience is running high. Tuesday’s opening surge back to Monday’s surge’s peak suggested the rally was getting underway. But it peaked 1 penny short of the 4.03 trigger, and then plunged back under 3.93. Sellers will have regained traction unless Wednesday rally’s sharply.

Dollar Basket Mar (DXH) Impatient buyers briefly rally. Gapping up to extend Monday’s session-long rally was not impressive. Not retracing the early peak only expended buying pressure without gaining traction for the effort. A dip to 76.28 would help to form a better bottom.

Gold Apr (GCJ) Patiently waiting for a fresh high. Tuesday did not recover from Monday’s  close under 1435.00, which signaled that buyers had lost traction. But sellers haven’t gained traction. An accumulation pattern would help to resume the rally.

30-year Treasury Jun (USM) Patiently waiting a setup. Tuesday’s close under 118’26 only retraced Monday’s range. Closing under 118’04 would confirm momentum was reversing down . Otherwise, not exploiting this second opportunity to decline would all but ensure another probe of prior highs above 120’17.

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Daily Spot coverage schedule is: Currencies (Mon), Metals (Tue), Energies (Wed), Rates (Thu), Weekender (Fri).