Daily Spot

A weekly summary of one complex, including daily updates of other developments elsewhere.[pay]

Dollar Basket Mar (DXH) The open’s gap down got it way wrong. Monday’s open did mimic Friday’s characteristics by immediately probing new lows. The balance of the session trended back up, also closing above the prior session’s low. The open’s gap down to 76.21 would need to be retested before a durable bottom could form, but a close above 76.75 would suggest buyers were already regaining traction.

Gold Apr (GCJ) Minimum objective met, but there’s still room. Monday’s close was still in the process of testing 1435.00 or trying to recover it. Closing above it would have maintained the rally’s momentum. But the morning’s 1445.70 new high fulfilled the minimum requirement of last week’s setup. A second consecutive close under 1435.00 would signal the top had formed. Extending the rally would next target 1454.00.

30-year Treasury Jun (USM) Setting up for failure. Monday’s bounce up to Friday’s high also closed back above 118’26 again. Having trending up intraday, the inside day is a form of “ineffectual optimism.” Unlike a failed probe of new highs that would resolve down, this instance simply forms an unstable base –  higher highs may follow, and they would be likely to fail. Above 119’26 would target a retest of 120’17, which could extend up to 122’00 if not rejected immediately.

Crude Oil Apr (CLJ) New highs, and holding. Monday’s gap up came within about 30 cents of its 107.25 high. The balance of the session ranged sideways exclusively in positive territory. And yet, the session did not form “ineffectual optimism,” since the morning’s low was not probed temporarily to trap buyers. Higher highs remain possible, if only temporarily. Closing back under 102.50 would signal momentum already reversing down.

Natural Gas Apr (NGJ) It’s alive. Monday’s 3.85 gap down was above prior lows. Follow-through to 3.83 did attack prior lows. There is no unfinished business below. A sudden reversal quickly recovered 3.95. An afternoon surge tested fresh highs up to 3.99. This is back above levels that launched the recent surge to 4.17. Now extending above 4.03 would put into play 4.35.

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Daily Spot coverage schedule is: Currencies (Mon), Metals (Tue), Energies (Wed), Rates (Thu), Weekender (Fri).

A weekly summary of one complex, including daily updates of other developments elsewhere.[pay]

Dollar Basket Mar (DXH) Still no bottoming. Friday’s probe of new lows ended like Thursday – still testing the prior day’s lows. That also means no decisive bottom. Mondays tend to mimic Friday’s action in currencies, so the trend’s momentum remains intact.

Gold Apr (GCJ) Still on a mission. Tuesdays breakout and Wednesday’s confirmation created the requirement for at least a third higher high. Resistance at 1435.00 created an opportunity from holding support at 1416.00. Friday’s rally confirmed the support had held, and new highs are in-play.

30-year Treasury Jun (USM) Still toppy. The Employment Situation report’s reaction managed a close back above 118’26 to invalidate its sell signal. But another sell signal could still be generated so long as 119’26 isn’t recovered on a closing basis. Closing any higher would put into play at least a detour to actually probe 121’07 meaningfully intraday.

Crude Oil Apr (CLJ) Still surging. Thursday’s “ineffectual pessimism” produced new highs Friday. The session trended up intraday to qualify as a breakout. Closing higher Monday would confirm.The next higher resistance is 107.25. Otherwise, closing back under 101.00 would indicate the last rally leg had ended, and momentum was reversing down.

Natural Gas Apr (NGJ) Still not bouncing. Probes of the lows continue, and continue to avoid gaining traction. It’s not as accumulative as probes were prior to the recent two-day rally, but no bearish pattern is in-play.

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Daily Spot coverage schedule is: Currencies (Mon), Metals (Tue), Energies (Wed), Rates (Thu), Weekender (Fri).

A weekly summary of one complex, including daily updates of other developments elsewhere.[pay]

30-year Treasury Jun (USM) Perhaps a little too cautious. Wednesday’s close under the 119’26 signal was confirmed by Thursday’s close under118’26. That was quick. And maybe a little too pessimistic – down more than 2 points in two days – ahead of Friday’s Employment Situation report. This defensive posturing has dipped too far to ensure that a negative reaction can be absorbed. An initially favorable knee-jerk reaction up to 119’16 or 119’26 would still be vulnerable to reversing down.

Dollar Basket Mar (DXH) Second time isn’t a charm, either. Wednesday’s second consecutive breakout wasn’t confirmed. At least, not cleanly. Thursday’s recovered to close while in the process of testing Wednesday’s lows as resistance. Initial buying pressure Friday would be credible for extending higher. But there is no support below otherwise to prevent extending down into and out of the weekend.

Gold Apr (GCJ) False breakout confirmation? Still being in the process of testing 1435.00 resistance at Wednesday’s close made a pullback likely Thursday. Closing higher to confirm Tuesday’s breakout made the pullback all about refueling buyers. My objective for the dip was 1424.00. It reached 1412.20. Intraday. A close back under 1416.00 before Thursday would have signaled momentum reversing down in a very big way. Holding 1416.00 at Thursday’s close leaves the door open for Thursday’s dip to have been the expected correction, albeit twice as large as anticipated.

Crude Oil Apr (CLJ) All hat. A very large hat. Pessimism: Thursday’s open gapped down, the afternoon probed the morning’s low, and (essentially) the entire session was spent in negative territory. Ineffectual: The close was back above the morning’s low. This consolidation of the prior two days’ firming, occurring just under the prior week’s highs, suggests buyers have regrouped to attempt another rally Friday. Ineffectual Pessimism doesn’t launch durable legs, so failing to extend higher could be bearish.

Natural Gas May (NGK) Trash compactor. Thursday’s close under 4.93 (basis May, 4.88 basis Apr) gave sellers traction. A close above it would rob sellers of their traction, and back above 4.98 would give buyers traction targeting 4.26. Probably higher to compensate for the delay. Otherwise, the pattern is vulnerable to sinking further, but I am only interested in a long-entry to capitalize on the past two weeks’ accumulation.

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Daily Spot coverage schedule is: Currencies (Mon), Metals (Tue), Energies (Wed), Rates (Thu), Weekender (Fri).

A weekly summary of one complex, including daily updates of other developments elsewhere.[pay]

Crude Oil Apr (CLJ) Breakout, sort of. The ongoing consolidation ended with Wednesday’s rally. The expected upleg is underway, but it is probably a final upleg since the consolidation was too shallow to refuel buyers. And Wednesday’s intraday rally expended a lot of energy without recovering above last week’s highs.

Natural Gas Apr (NGJ) Heartbreaker. Wednesday’s close under 3.88 stops the watch for a rally to begin. Its recovery on a closing basis would prevent a new downleg from beginning. But a close above 3.98 is still needed to resume the rally effort. EIA reports on Thursday.

Dollar Basket Mar (DXH) Try, try again. Tuesday did not confirm Monday’s breakout close under prior lows. That did not prevent Wednesday from trending down to a new breakout close. But it does make Thursday unlikely to confirm, as well. None of which is a buy signal, but it would make fresh lows easier to recover,

Gold Apr (GCJ) Room to dip. Tuesday’s breakout was confirmed by a higher close Wednesday. The higher close also held a test of 1435.00 resistance, making a pullback likely down to  1424.00 that refuels buyers for at least one more higher high.

30-year Treasury Jun (USM) Can’t yet count out a rally. Wednesday’s retest of the rally’s 120’17 target was rejected to close under 119’26. Buyers have lost traction. But I can’t yet discount filling the gap back to Tuesday’s close and probing fresh highs.

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Daily Spot coverage schedule is: Currencies (Mon), Metals (Tue), Energies (Wed), Rates (Thu), Weekender (Fri).

A weekly summary of one complex, including daily updates of other developments elsewhere.[pay]

Gold Apr (GCJ) Not exactly noise. There was room for noise to fluctuate up to 1426.00 so long as 1405.50 held as support. And a dip tested 1405.50 after Monday’s close. An overnight rally created a gap up that extended higher to probe 1426.00 up to 1433.40.

The session closed at highs, before extending higher. That’s not quite noise. Now there is room up to 1435.00 so long as pullbacks hold 1423.00 as support. And with Tuesday’s new high being a breakout, a second consecutive higher close is needed to confirm. Closing back under 1416.50 would instead signal momentum reversing down, in a very big way.

Dollar Basket Mar (DXH) Sellers stall, but can buyers exploit it? Monday’s first new relative low close was a breakout. It went unconfirmed without a consecutive lower close Tuesday. Its gap down probed Monday’s low but closed positive, back above last week’s prior lows. This is not a buy signal, but initial strength Wednesday would be credible for extending higher intraday. Gaps outstanding above can attract price higher, and should if a bottom is in. Otherwise, the decline will likely accelerate its pace.

30-year Treasury Jun (USM) Two wrongs make a top. The rally’s 120’17 target (basis Jun, 122’04 basis Mar) was retested again, and again it was outside of regular trading hours. The rally could still extend higher. But this pattern would require a new rally leg to begin suddenly, to rally steeply and to rally substantially to 122’14. Otherwise, closing back under 119’26 would signal momentum reversing down again, confirmed under 118’26, and targeting new lows.

Crude Oil Apr (CLJ) Getting closer. The ongoing consolidation still has room to dip further, but time is growing short before the next rally leg should be underway.

Natural Gas Apr (NGJ) Getting further. Failing to hold 3.98 has robbed buyers of any traction gained by Friday’s bounce. But sellers still have yet to gain their own traction, and closing back above 3.98 would signal another rally effort underway targeting 4.21.

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Daily Spot coverage schedule is: Currencies (Mon), Metals (Tue), Energies (Wed), Rates (Thu), Weekender (Fri).