Daily Spot

A weekly summary of one complex, including daily updates of other developments elsewhere.[pay]

Dollar Basket Mar (DXH) What bottoms and breakouts have in common. The only thing unusual about Monday’s new low is how quickly it departed from Friday’s modest optimism. Mondays usually mimic Fridays, but Monday’s gap down only mirrored Friday’s gap up. Neither followed-through intraday.

Regardless, Feb 1’s low was probed. Interestingly, the 76.92 opening print was also the closing print. Gapping up Tuesday above 77.20 would signal momentum quickly reversing up, likely to trend up sharply intraday.

The Euro’s pattern is almost perfectly inverted from the Dollar Index, while the Swiss Franc was eerily calm and slightly lower Monday.

Gold Apr (GCJ) Lots of room for noise. Monday’s post-close action dipped briefly to test 1405.50. It held, as it must to maintain potential for noise to test 1426.00.

30-year Treasury Mar (USH) Target met, and held, but not rejected. Holding out for the 122’04 target was rewarded, but only overnight. No intraday retest is required. But an intraday retest is likely so long as 121’14 holds as support. At this stage of the pattern, extending higher almost requires beginning with an aggressive spike up. Any less optimism would be vulnerable to reversing down intraday.

Crude Oil Apr (CLJ) Hitting the snooze button again. Another optimistic start ended the day notably weaker. Sunday night’s open surged $2 to 100.00, then started falling to 96.70. The pattern is still consolidating, flat to lower, refueling for the next rally leg. Under 95.50 would target 92.00.

Natural Gas Apr (NGJ) Just a little slow on the uptake. Monday’s action did duplicate Friday’s as is customary. But the immediate breakout from Friday’s Flag pattern up to 4.09 was almost fully retraced back down to 4.04. So long as 3.98 holds as support, this leg’s initial target is 4.21.

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Daily Spot coverage schedule is: Currencies (Mon), Metals (Tue), Energies (Wed), Rates (Thu), Weekender (Fri).

A weekly summary of one complex, including daily updates of other developments elsewhere.[pay]

Dollar Basket Mar (DXH) Too soon? Friday’s gap up extended higher to 77.46 into mid-morning, then plateaued for the day. A better bottom would have tested Feb 1’s 77.08 low, first. It still should, although maybe not immediately since currencies tend to mimic Friday’s action on Mondays. This Monday might be an exception since Friday was “ineffectual optimism” (gapping up, probing prior session’s high, and trading exclusively in positive territory, but without closing above he morning’s high).

Gold Apr (GCJ) Ignoring the spike. There was nothing remarkable about Friday’s relatively narrow range. Which is remarkable, because of Thursday’s post-close spike down. Friday’s regular trading hours neither retested it, nor squeezed it, which suggests it was a warning shot across bow at buyers. Still, closing above 1405.50 maintains potential for noise to test 1426.00. But the pattern is still topping so long as any new high intraday fails to close above 1415.50.

30-year Treasury Mar (USH) Untimely strength. There was no reaction down Friday following Thursday’s “ineffectual optimism.” This keeps alive potential to test the outstanding 122’04 target. A close under 120’26-120’30 would suggest the rally had already peaked.

Crude Oil Apr (CLJ) Eerie calm. Similar to Gold, Crude Oil ranged only narrowly intraday, as if Thursday’s post-close drop never happened. Unlike Gold, much of Crude’s drop Thursday had happened already intraday. And Wednesday’s 97.89 close was still being tested at Friday’s close. Another rally leg remains possible, if not likely, but another day or two of consolidation is possible first.

Natural Gas Apr (NGJ) More than a pulse. Two weeks of probing fresh lows intraday without gaining traction have made the pattern increasingly vulnerable to at least a corrective bounce. Thursday’s recovery from gapping down and probing fresh lows down to 3.82 may have been the last straw. Friday session trended straight up to 4.04 into the noon hour. That’s new highs for the week, even after accounting for the afternoon’s Bull Flag retracement. This market tends to mimic Friday’s action on Monday, which could attack or even test the bounce’s 4.21 minimum objective.

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Daily Spot coverage schedule is: Currencies (Mon), Metals (Tue), Energies (Wed), Rates (Thu), Weekender (Fri).

A weekly summary of one complex, including daily updates of other developments elsewhere.[pay]

30-year Treasury Mar (USH) Feet, don’t fail me now. Thursday’s opening gap up retested Wednesday’s 121’14 high, and probed new highs, but stopped short of fulfilling the 122’04 target. Combined with spending the entire session in positive territory, this is “ineffectual optimism.” Meeting 122’04 quickly would be vulnerable to a steep move, either up sharply or down sharply. But just dipping from here would more likely recover from testing 120’14.

Dollar Basket Mar (DXH) So far down it’s up. The retest of prior lows is complete, and the decline is stretched pretty tightly. A much lower low isn’t needed since the inverted Head & Shoulder’s prior high was also shallow. But almost any strength would be credible for launching a rally.

Gold Apr (GCJ) Like a lead balloon. Thursday’s retest of Wednesday’s 1417.30 high became vulnerable to bad news, and bad news came. Its reaction was exacerbated by the weak base that launched the current rally from 1376.00. Closing back above 1405.50 Friday would resume the rally, or at least its potential to test 1426.00. Closing under 1398.0 – which was avoided Thursday – would trigger a steep decline.

Crude Oil Apr (CLJ) Ding, dong, the witch is dead? Unconfirmed reports of Kaddafi being shot were a perfect bookmark to early news that Saudi Arabia would make up for Libya’s production shortfall. The first news inhibited extending higher, and the second news triggered a steep spike down. Regardless, the 100.50 target has been met, and it has held. The pattern is now likely to pause and retrace before launching a new upleg.

Natural Gas Apr (NGJ) Waiting for an engraved invitation. Another low, another recovery, another non-buy signal. Thursday’s fresh low ended the day testing prior lows as resistance. The gap back to Wednesday’s close was left outstanding, and any early strength would get a benefit of the doubt for extending higher. That behavior would be doubly bullish for being a Friday, whose price action Mondays tend to mimic.

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Daily Spot coverage schedule is: Currencies (Mon), Metals (Tue), Energies (Wed), Rates (Thu), Weekender (Fri).

A weekly summary of one complex, including daily updates of other developments elsewhere.[pay]

Crude Oil Apr (CLJ) Missed it by that much. The rally came back with renewed vigor Wednesday after having held its pullback limit Tuesday. The intraday 100.00 peak missed my 100.50 target, but that just makes a higher target likely. The first close above 100.50 will define that level.

Natural Gas Apr (NGJ) Building a floor of trapped shorts. Wednesday’s retest of the week’s prior lows was recovered back into positive territory. Its peak stopped pessimistically short of fully filling the gap back to Tuesday’s 3.97 open. Any close above it would trigger a corrective rally targeting at least 4.13.

Dollar Basket Mar (DXH) Not even a safe haven? Perhaps now the only way to avoid retesting recent lows is to spike or gap up Thursday to reject Wednesday’s drop. Monday’s overnight highs will need to be retested eventually. But Wednesday’s drop confirms the inverted Head & Shoulders driving February’s bounce was already retraced past its tipping point.

Gold Apr (GCJ) Inch by inch. A retest of Tuesday’s 1410.00 highs was needed, which Wednesday’s session fulfilled. There is potential for noise to range up to 1426.00, so long as the lower-end holds 1305.50. Regardless, a close under 1398.00 would be the earliest signal that momentum is reversing down.

30-year Treasury Mar (USH) Target in sight. A failed test of 121’14 had triggered the downleg that eventually fulfilled the 117’16-118’00 target. It was retraced completely on Wednesday. The reaction down from there doesn’t change the 122’04 objective, which should still be tested regardless of the ultimate resolution.

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Daily Spot coverage schedule is: Currencies (Mon), Metals (Tue), Energies (Wed), Rates (Thu), Weekender (Fri).

A weekly summary of one complex, including daily updates of other developments elsewhere.[pay]

Gold Apr (GCJ) That explains that. Now we know why repeated tests of 1376.00 never pushed back. World instability has two or three close friends, and this is one.  Thursday’s close above it and Friday’s confirmation squeezed in ahead of Sunday night and Monday’s rally to 1411.50.

Dollar Basket Mar (DXH) If not for being a safe haven... The Dollar rallied overnight much higher than intraday, when more of the drop occurred. The session closed while still testing 77.85, whose decisive recovery would signal last week’s drop was a correction that had ended.

30-year Treasury Mar (USH) Attractive, relatively. Another friend in falling markets, the long-bond showed why its repeated tests of 119’04-119’16 were unable to produce a reactionary decline. Near-term potential is to probe 122’04, so long as price action is aggressive.

Crude Oil Apr (CLJ) Holding strong. Tuesday’s eventual pullback held support at the upper-end of what had been the rally’s 92.85-93.60 target. After retesting the high up to 100.50, if accompanied by negative divergence, a retest of 92.85-93.60 will be likely. Testing 92.85 first would help to fuel a more powerful and durable recovery.

Natural Gas Mar (NGH) One side is lying. Tuesday’s early strength seemed to be the long-awaited corrective bounce. But its reversal into negative territory to new lows seemed to say otherwise. It didn’t say it strongly enough – the close was still in the process of testing prior lows, yet again. Additionally, Tuesday’s gap up is now unfinished business above that will try to attract price higher.

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Daily Spot coverage schedule is: Currencies (Mon), Metals (Tue), Energies (Wed), Rates (Thu), Weekender (Fri).