Daily Spot

A weekly summary of one complex, including daily updates of other developments elsewhere.[pay]

Dollar Basket Mar (DXH) Better late than never, to a point. The price of Tuesday’s shallow correction continued to mount. Friday extended down yet another day. The two-week old gap back was filled down to 77.57, but 77.85 wasn’t recovered – which would have formed a bottom. Immediately recovering and extending through 77.85 Tuesday still could. Otherwise, a much bigger drop is underway.

Gold Apr (GCJ) Lighter than air. Thursday’s close above 1376.00 was confirmed by a second consecutive higher close Friday. The next higher target is 1402.00, and potentially 1424.00. That said, this is a very difficult pattern to manage long-entry, and a close under 1376.00 would signal momentum reversing down.

30-year Treasury Mar (USH) Ineffectual pessimism again. The long-bond tends not to be a distraction on expirations, perhaps out of professional courtesy. So, despite Friday’s gap down extending to 118’22, the afternoon narrowed the loss to 6 ticks by closing at 119’07. Repeated testing of the 119’04-119’16 bounce target, without yet reversing down, suggests there may be more work to do above. But there is no signal in place.

Crude Oil Apr (CLJ) Gusher coming? Friday’s gap up further confirmed the long-held target had fulfilled selling pressure. The first bounce target was met at 90.50, triggering a corrective dip that filled the gap back to Thursday’s close. Same-day neutralizing the attraction below helps to leave pent-up buying pressure for extending up to the 92.85-93.60 target, which is in-play so long as 88.50 holds as support.

Natural Gas Mar (NGH) Down, but not out. Friday’s narrow ranging was identical to Thursday afternoon’s pattern. There’s still no buy signal, but a one-day rally could begin suddenly and test of probe 4.13.

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Daily Spot coverage schedule is: Currencies (Mon), Metals (Tue), Energies (Wed), Rates (Thu), Weekender (Fri).

A weekly summary of one complex, including daily updates of other developments elsewhere.[pay]

30-year Treasury Mar (USH) Taking advantage. Thursday was not in inside day, but it still held a test of the 119’16 corrective bounce target. Failing to close above 119’16 makes at least a dip to 118’00 likely, if not a new downleg.

Dollar Basket Mar (DXH) Careful what you ask for. The pullback extended to test 78.00, but didn’t react up. Three days of dipping – not counting the prior day that trended down ever since gapping up – should suffice for being the pullback. And this dip remains shallow enough to be only a pullback.

Gold Apr (GCJ) Gold bugs are made of steel. There is nothing bearish about a higher high like Thursday’s close $7 above the 1376.00 corrective bounce target. It might even be compelling to buy a dip to 1374.50-1376.00, albeit with a very tight stop. But I would also sell a close under 1370.00.

Crude Oil Apr (CLJ) Still firming. March closed above 85.50, and April closed above 88.30, to rob sellers of their traction. A close above 86.50/89.25 would signal momentum reversing up, targeting 92.90-93.45 basis April. Closing under 87.25 basis April would signal the downleg is extending to its next target at 75.00.

Natural Gas Mar (NGH) No wonder there wasn’t a signal. Buyers still haven’t gained traction, and Thursday’s EIA report triggered a spike down to new lows. But a quick recovery spent the balance of the session testing Monday’s prior low as resistance. Combined with neither Monday’s low nor Wednesday’s gap extending down, this now makes three sessions trying to break the 3.90 area, and failing. It’s not a buy signal, but the pattern continues to be vulnerable to at least a corrective bounce up to 4.13.

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Daily Spot coverage schedule is: Currencies (Mon), Metals (Tue), Energies (Wed), Rates (Thu), Weekender (Fri).

A weekly summary of one complex, including daily updates of other developments elsewhere.[pay]

Crude Oil Mar (CLH) Now, where did I place my rose-colored glasses? As warned, reaching the 84.00 target would find a mood shift from all that has been going right, to all that could go wrong. They’re still protesting in Cairo, their death toll rises, and an Iranian warship is steaming toward Syria.

Tuesday’s 83.85 low was followed the next day by a 85.95 high. There is potential to probe one more lower low intraday. Closing above 85.50 would rob sellers of any remaining traction, and a close above 86.50 would signal momentum reversing up.

Natural Gas Mar (NGH) By default. Wednesday’s gap down didn’t extend lower, which continues to reflect a vulnerability to rallying – if only for a corrective rally targeting 4.13.

Dollar Basket Mar (DXH) One more for the dipper. Wednesday’s initial surge quickly peaked since Tuesday’s shallow dip already had expended too much optimism. The lower low at 78.30 held, but did not recover 78.65 which would signal the rally had resumed.

Gold Apr (GCJ) A day late, six dollars short. Tuesday’s gap up to the 1376.00 target never extended higher intraday. Wednesday’s noon hour probe of higher highs up to 1382.70 was too late to gain traction, and the close fell back under 1376.00. A dip under 1370.00 prior highs should bounce to retest Tuesday’s 1375.50 open, but a close under 1370.00 could still seal a top.

30-year Treasury Mar (USH) One way, or another. The corrective bounce has ended. Its 119’16 bounce target was met Wednesday, despite the open’s shallower surge reversing down into negative territory first. The subsequent recovery to 119’20 was also reversed back into negative territory, ending flat on the day. Thursday’s econ calendar is quite busy. Extending any higher would be more than a corrective bounce.

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Daily Spot coverage schedule is: Currencies (Mon), Metals (Tue), Energies (Wed), Rates (Thu), Weekender (Fri).

A weekly summary of one complex, including daily updates of other developments elsewhere.[pay]

Gold Apr (GCJ) Light as a feather, for less than a moment. Gap up immediately fulfilled the outstanding potential to 1376.00. It was not in-play, but sellers had yet to regain control.

Monday’s inside day of “ineffectual optimism” prevented the open’s gap from extending up. Excessive optimism prevented the intraday dip from extending down.

Dipping back under prior highs to 1366.50-1368.00 would be attracted higher to fill the gap back to Tuesday’s 1375.50 open. Then a close under 1370.00 would signal momentum reversing down, or closing above  1376.00 would signal the rally extending higher.

Dollar Basket Mar (DXH) Not tolerating descent. Monday’s “ineffectual optimism” was corrected somewhat by Tuesday’s ineffectual pessimism. The open gapped down, prior lows were probed, and the entire session was spent in negative territory. The intraday 78.40 low touched the inverted Head & Shoulders neckline as support. That is sufficient for the rally to extend higher. But a lower low to 78.30 that recovers to close back above 78.65 would be more constructive.

30-year Treasury Mar (USH) Shaky ground, but still standing. Having eked higher Monday to fulfill the 119’04 bounce target, optimism was kept in-check. This left plenty of buying pressure available to absorb Tuesday’s gap down. In fact, the intraday high probed Monday’s high. Sellers still haven’t gained traction, and buyers still haven’t expended excessive energy, making 119’16‘s test likelier.

Crude Oil Mar (CLH) Next target, please. The long-standing 84.00 target was finally met Tuesday, and it held as support through the close. That is not a buy signal. And a bounce has room up to 85.50 without sellers losing traction. But any higher would confirm the low is in, and above 86.00 would signal momentum reversing up. Closing under 83.50 would signal the downleg extending, its next major target being 75.00.

Natural Gas Mar (NGH) In the absence of selling. The pattern is still likelier to bounce than to extend the decline, albeit for only a corrective bounce. But there is no pattern or setup to indicate its start.

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Daily Spot coverage schedule is: Currencies (Mon), Metals (Tue), Energies (Wed), Rates (Thu), Weekender (Fri).

A weekly summary of one complex, including daily updates of other developments elsewhere.[pay]

Dollar Basket Mar (DXH) The Satchel Paige breakout. The inverted Head & Shoulders remains intact, and it has been productive. Fresh recovery highs have rejected the recent new lows.

But three consecutive gaps open – never closing above each morning’s high (red circles vs. green) – continue to indicate that buyers aren’t gaining traction day-to-day. In fact, Monday was “ineffectual optimism” – for gapping up, probing fresh highs, and trading exclusively in positive territory while closing negative.

Monday’s close was still in the process of testing Friday’s highs as support (highlighted pink, Happy Valentine’s Day!). The gap back to Monday’s 78.50 opening print will want to be filled eventually. Dipping first would help to ensure a recovery.

Gold Apr (GCJ) Man, these bars are heavy. Monday’s inside day trended up, which is a form of ‘ineffectual optimism.” A higher high can’t be discounted, but it wouldn’t be likely to gain traction. Testing 1376.00 would be likely to push back down. A close under 1354.00 would signal the next downleg underway.

30-year Treasury Mar (USH) A bigger bounce would be only that. Bounce potential to 119’04was finally fulfilled Monday. It was fulfilled early, without being rejected, leaving potential to 119’16. Closing under 118’00 would signal the downleg had resumed, or at least a retest of last week’s 117’00.

Crude Oil Mar (CLH) Getting close to striking oil. An early bounce above 86.00 was absorbed. Its reversal down to new lows at 84.58 confirms the downleg next targeting 84.00 remains intact. Bounces must meanwhile avoid closing above 86.00.

Natural Gas Mar (NGH) Time to throw bulls a bone? New lows on Monday naturally followed Friday’s new lows. They did not extend, and a bounce would be credible, but no bottoming pattern has formed.

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Daily Spot coverage schedule is: Currencies (Mon), Metals (Tue), Energies (Wed), Rates (Thu), Weekender (Fri).