Daily Spot

A weekly summary of one complex, including daily updates of other developments elsewhere.[pay]

Dollar Basket Mar (DXH) One gap at a time. Two consecutive sessions have gapped up without buyers gaining traction either day. Friday’s gap up didn’t extend much higher, and RSIs diverged negatively into the intraday high’s retest. A pullback has room down to 78.25, perhaps to 77.85, while still being likely to resolve in a new upleg.

Gold Apr (GCJ) The bullish case for procrastination. 1361.50 did not hold as support through Friday’s close, proving that Thursday afternoon’s recovery did squander the pent-up buying pressure that was created by the open’s gap down. The 1376.00 bounce target does not require a test, and there is no other unfinished business above.

30-year Treasury Mar (USH) When a low becomes too obvious, it isn’t. Friday’s gap up proved that Thursday’s inside day was “ineffectual pessimism.” Its close back above 118’00 still prevents sellers from gaining traction, and keeps the door open for a corrective bounce targeting 119’04 up to 119’16. Not bouncing significantly Monday would mean the next downleg was about to begin, or it already had.

Crude Oil Mar (CLH) There’s always something. Finally broke lower after all of its chipping away at support, probing new lows that were dictated by its previous test of Jan 26’s 86.00 pivotal low. The 87.65 interim high held its tests as resistance, limiting how much sellers were refueled. The next target at 84.00 has a better chance at being a significant bottom. Jubilation in Tahir Square may not end, but focus should then turn to developments that are more bullish for oil.

Natural Gas Mar (NGH) Time to refuel the drop? Friday’s characteristics tend to be duplicated on Mondays in Natty Gas. So the new lows are likely to extend lower. The next opportunity for a low is 3.84, and closing positive Monday after testing it intraday could be bullish.

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Daily Spot coverage schedule is: Currencies (Mon), Metals (Tue), Energies (Wed), Rates (Thu), Weekender (Fri).

A weekly summary of one complex, including daily updates of other developments elsewhere.[pay]

30-year Treasury Mar (USH) When is a bounce not a bounce? Two consecutive sessions of probing new lows and closing back above 118’00 robbed sellers of their traction. Each of these session’s created a vulnerability to a corrective bounce. Thursday’s gap down weakened further, for an inside day. Recovering 118’00 would target 119’04 up to 119’16. But almost any delay in bouncing Friday would be bearish.

Dollar Basket Mar (DXH) When is bullish too bullish? Thursday did everything needed to trigger the inverted Head & Shoulder pattern. The open quickly recovered 77.85, and the session also probed 78.25 and 78.33. But the latter’s recovery was not maintained through the close. And Thursday’s gap up creates unfinished business back to Wednesday’s close. The intraday high didn’t probe fresh highs, pessimism that helps to off-set the open’s optimism. A retest of 77.85 that recovers to close above Friday’s high would be bullish.

Gold Apr (GCJ) How long can metal float? Thursday’s gap down was fully recovered, neutralizing its attraction, instead of leaving buying pressure to become pent-up overnight. Resuming the rally Friday is more difficult, but it is still possible since 1361.50 held as support through the close to maintain potential to 1376.00.

Crude Oil Mar (CLH) Was the leak plugged? Another probe up into Monday’s range was rejected back to the gap at Tuesday’s open. This continues to undermine buyers. The drop remains vulnerable to resuming, and targeting 84.00. Potential there for a durable bottom to produce a significant upleg.

Natural Gas Mar (NGH) Has the well run dry? Friday’s lower lows were much more in keeping with the spirit of rewarding Monday and Tuesday for its breakout and confirmation. But there is still no bottom pattern forming. A bounce has room up to 4.13 while still being likely to resolve down.

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Daily Spot coverage schedule is: Currencies (Mon), Metals (Tue), Energies (Wed), Rates (Thu), Weekender (Fri).

A weekly summary of one complex, including daily updates of other developments elsewhere.[pay]

Crude Oil Mar (CLH) Top-heavy at a low. Tuesday’s gap down reacted up into the prior session’s range. Then its gap was retested. Wednesday reacted back up into the same prior session’s range. That could have been the basis for a bigger bounce. Instead, Wednesday closed by dipping back into Tuesday’s opening gap. Buyers aren’t gaining traction, and any lower low under 86.35 would be credible for resuming the drop next targeting 84.00.

Natural Gas Mar (NGH) Buyers nowhere to be found. Wednesday’s new low fulfills the minimum requirement of Monday’s breakout and Tuesday’s confirmation. But it was not very much in the spirit of the requirement, being only a slightly lower low, and it certainly wasn’t recovered. I might consider a long-entry parameter if another new low Thursday were recovered sufficiently.

Dollar Basket Mar (DXH) Not exactly a fast start. The inverted Head & Shoulders pattern has yet to trigger above 78.25-78.33. Wednesday’s close also failed to recover 77.85. Its quick recovery Thursday, and a quick extension above the pattern’s trigger, would be credible for extending sharply higher intraday. Failing to fulfill these bullish parameters would be bearish.

Gold Apr (GCJ) Not every day can surge. Tuesday’s rally has yet to extend. Wednesday’s dip to 1358.30 recovered 1361.50 through the close, maintaining the potential for reaching 1376.00. But the rally must resume quickly to avoid sellers gaining traction.

30-year Treasury Mar (USH) Suspicious timing. Lower lows overnight tested 116’26, but recovered to close back above 118’00. This action seems once again to have robbed sellers of their traction, while signaling a corrective bounce – perhaps targeting more than 119’04 to compensate for the detour. But I’ll withhold that judgement until after Thursday’s 1:00pm ET 30-year auction, in case Wednesday’s recovery was simply last-minute ill-fated optimism.

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Daily Spot coverage schedule is: Currencies (Mon), Metals (Tue), Energies (Wed), Rates (Thu), Weekender (Fri).

A weekly summary of one complex, including daily updates of other developments elsewhere.[pay]

Gold Apr (GCJ) Worth the wait. Friday’s dip to 1342.50-1345.00 support had held through Monday. That made 1361.00‘s retest likely. Its retest came in the form of a $15 surge to 1365.00 that also attacked 1369.00. So long as 1361.00 holds any test as support, the 1376.00 target’s test could come Wednesday.

Copper Mar (HGH) A resistance too far. Last week’s testing of 4.56 resistance was probed intraday and overnight. But Monday’s attempt to confirm Fridays’ breakout was retraced to close negative on the day. This setup indicates that the rally’s sponsorship has lapsed. A pullback has room down to 4.35 before sellers gain traction.

Dollar Basket Mar (DXH) Head & Shoulders below the rest. An inverted Head & Shoulders has formed from the temporary dip back to last Thursday. Tuesday’s close above 77.85 suggests the right shoulder has finished forming. A fresh high above 78.25-78.33 would target 79.00 and 79.78.

30-year Treasury Mar (USH) Hunkering down ahead of Ben? Monday’s close back above 118’00 never gained traction for a corrective bounce. Gravity continued to pull price down to 117’10. Unless rejected immediately by closing Wednesday back above 118’04, the drop is extending to next target 116’14. An immediate recovery would suggest Tuesday’s extra dip was defensive posturing ahead of Bernanke’s House testimony Wednesday.

Crude Oil Mar (CLH) Catching its breath to keep new lows alive. Tuesday’s gap down tested 86.00, which was the pivotal low (low prior to the actual low) of January’s decline. Extending down without delay could have quickly bottomed. Instead a bounce to 88.00 has refueled the drop, next targeting 84.00. A bigger bounce to 88.40 may develop, first.

Natural Gas Mar (NGH) Falling knife. Although lower lows fulfilled lower objectives, Tuesday’s second consecutive lower close confirmed Monday’s breakout. At least some testing of 4.00 is likely, regardless of the pattern’s resolution.

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Daily Spot coverage schedule is: Currencies (Mon), Metals (Tue), Energies (Wed), Rates (Thu), Weekender (Fri).

A weekly summary of one complex, including daily updates of other developments elsewhere.[pay]

Dollar Basket Mar (DXH) One day to lift-off, or else. Monday’s price action ranged flat to lower. The pattern wasn’t required to extend higher, but it would have been helpful after having probed prior highs intraday. The probe wasn’t necessarily rejected, so so too much energy wasn’t left on the table. The rally could extend higher by Tuesday afternoon or Wednesday morning.

Euro Dollar Mar (ECH) Chipping away at support. Two sell signals had triggered in the week prior to last week’s high. Both were broken Friday. Monday’s lower low was recovered enough to end the day testing prior lower as resistance. An obvious downleg should be underway by the following close to avoid one more attack on last week’s highs.

Gold Apr (GCJ) Once more for the gipper. Sideways ranging held just above the 1342.50-1345.00 pullback limit. Its break would signal the next downleg underway. Delaying its break suggests another attack on 1361.00 first.

30-year Treasury Mar (USH) One small bounce for the effort. The overnight touch of 117’16 was retested down to 117’13 where RSIs diverged positively. Its reaction recovered the 117’27 interim high, and closed above the drop’s original 118’00 target. Sellers lost a lot of momentum, for a corrective bounce targeting at least 119’04 – and probably only for a corrective bounce.

Crude Oil Mar (CLH) Once it gets started, there’s no stopping it. Monday extended back down to the original 87.70 buy signal from Friday Jan 28. So long as 89.50 is not recovered, the trend remains down and next targeting 84.00.

Natural Gas Mar (NGH) One target met creates another. The long-awaited 4.13 target was tested aggressively by Monday’s gap down that extended down sharply intraday. No surprise on direction, nor on objective, just a little surprising on the aggressiveness. Quite a bit to be absorbed so quickly, room to extend down to 4.06-4.07 for comparisons that can indicate whether a durable low is in.

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Daily Spot coverage schedule is: Currencies (Mon), Metals (Tue), Energies (Wed), Rates (Thu), Weekender (Fri).