The First Trade

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
Wednesday morning’s retest of 2192.00 support had held, as its test had held Tuesday morning. It hasn’t actually been probed since being exceeded Monday afternoon, which put into play 2220.00. But even the holiday’s seasonal bullishness couldn’t offset the evaporating volume, limiting strength to only attack 2202.50. More “unfinished business above” was left outstanding at 2204.25 as price firmed into a positive close.

Overnight action’s new info…
Wednesday night’s initial dip back down to 2197.50 was recovered to attack 2202.50 into Europe’s opens. The resistance held until Thursday morning, which broke higher to new highs at 2207.00 before 1:00pm close. Thursday night’s action didn’t extend higher, but its reaction down has held 2202.50 as support.

If, then…
The 2220.00 target is essentially the only unfinished business above. It provides a safety line of sorts in case of another attempted downleg. Interestingly, so does Monday night’s 2203.00 “new Globex trend extreme.” It requires intraday retest, and only attacking it to within 3 ticks does not qualify. Today’s early close typically makes today the year’s least liquid sessions. So, getting a toehold above any unfinished business could marginalize sellers for the day, allowing the balance of the session to drift higher. By the same token, neutralizing any unfinished business without maintaining its recovery through a relevant window could drift back down relentlessly, to and (on the way) through 2192.00.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2205.50 would be likely to trigger the 2204.25 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2200 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up. PROGRAMMING NOTE: THERE IS NO AFTERNOON BIAS DUE TO THE EARLY CLOSE.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
Tuesday’s gap up to 2200.00 was 3 points under the overnight “new Globex trend extreme.” That spread widened despite triggering bias-up, as the balance of the morning slid back down to Monday afternoon’s 2192.00 lows. But the balance of the session trended back up to and through the opening range until the final minutes fulfilled the morning’s 2202.50 bias-up target.

Overnight action’s new info…
Choppy but narrow ranging eventually pierced a fresh high at 2203.50, then reacted down to 2197.75. The 5-point slide is now trying to bounce back into the range.

If, then…
Probing overnight above Monday night’s 2203.00 high doesn’t qualify as retesting it intraday, so its attraction remains outstanding. Also outstanding is the 2220.00 objective, which was put into play by closing above 2192.00 Monday. Meanwhile, Tuesday afternoon’s recovery gained traction, and the session confirmed Monday’s breakout. None of which prevents a reaction down Wednesday, despite the likely and least likely windows all having passed as Thanksgiving’s seasonal bullishness arrives. Wednesday’s econ calendar has plenty of catalysts, from the morning’s high-profile and/or reliably influential reports, through the afternoon’s FOMC Minutes.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2201.75 would be unlikely to trigger the 2204.25 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2205.50 would be likely to trigger bias-up.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
Pessimism was glaringly absent Monday. Gapping up to just under Friday’s 2187.50 high and then extending through it eventually touched 2196.50. An interim 6-1/2 point dip was recovered along the way. But there was otherwise no bearish WedEX influence. The indicator didn’t invert, which means that the distributive influence it had identified originally was already absorbed. The reward was to close above 2192.00, which was the room for noise above 2185.00-2186.00, and which signals that the rally is extending to 2220.00. “Unfinished business above” was left outstanding at 2199.50.

Overnight action’s new info…
Monday’s futures close had reacted back down to touch 2192.00, but only momentarily. The intraday rally soon resumed and extended up to 2203.00 well before midnight, fulfilling the intraday upside target that was left outstanding. Complexity to the rally has created a “new Globex trend extreme” which requires eventually retesting its high intraday. Meanwhile, consolidating narrowly for several hours wasn’t impressed by Europe’s opens, and price soon began dipping. Still a couple of points above yesterday’s late high, the pullback is now testing 2198.00.

If, then…
Absorbing the bearish WedEX and putting into play 2220.00 don’t protect against corrective dips. The seasonally bullish Thanksgiving holiday doesn’t protect against a pullback either, it only inhibits. And that’s not until this afternoon. Which makes this morning the last and likeliest opportunity for a natural correction. The opportunity is greater for having entrenched further upside with the new upside target, and the new Globex trend extreme’s required retest to help recover from its reaction down. It’s also interesting that the overnight high tested and held this morning’s bias-up target. But the overnight higher highs also help to expend selling pressure before it can start damaging the chart — so long as the open isn’t back within yesterday’s range, which would isolate the fresh highs to the overnight, and could point down sharply.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2194.50 would be unlikely to trigger the 2197.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2199.50 would be likely to trigger bias-up.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
Friday’s expiration open had recovered from an overnight drop to 2176.50. The 2185.50 opening print was up 6 ticks, but it didn’t hold after blipping-up to 2187.50. Reversing down sharply attacked the overnight low to within 1 point at 2177.50. The balance of the session ranged sideways, resisted up to 2182.75. The bearish WedEX’s influence was minor, if any, but not contradicted or invalidated

Overnight action’s new info…
Gradual firming was soon hovering back in the 2185.00-2186.00 zone until Europe’s opens. A mini-plunge down to 2179.25 was recovered as quickly, and more so, piercing a fresh high at 2186.00.

If, then…
The bearish WedEX setup influence should send price trending down post-open, regardless of the opening print, and whether or not the slope is steep. The slope should be steeper than shallow, since Friday’s influence was nominal. And the opening print should still be within the current range. So, we’ll consider the WedEX influence moot only after gapping up above 2185.00-2186.00, or if not reversed down fast. Meanwhile, we’re also sensitive to the ongoing rally injecting a pullback to at least 2162.00, before that opportunity is inhibited by Thanksgiving’s seasonal bullishness. But the pullback potential could become a multi-session short-squeeze on the way up to 2220.00 if gapping up above 2185.00-2186.00 were maintained through the open and extended above 2192.00.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2186.25 would be likely to trigger the 2185.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2180.75 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
Thursday fulfilled the last likely upside attraction, and it wasn’t even “unfinished business above.” A test of 2185.00-2186.00 was only likely to be visited while retesting 2180.00. The prior afternoon had gained traction to make Thursday morning likely to trend up. Thursday afternoon didn’t gain any new traction. Nor was the close under 2180.00 which would have been the earliest signal of upside momentum lapsing.

Overnight action’s new info…
Choppily ranging within Thursday afternoon’s 2180.50-2185.50 range suddenly started trending down from 2184.25 at Europe’s opens. It quickly extended down to 2176.25. Its reaction eked higher to retrace all but 3 ticks of the slide back up to 2183.50 .

If, then…
2185.00-2186.00 can be retested without probing higher, but there is room for noise up to 2192.00. Reacting down from either remains likely, but not required. Friday afternoon is likely to behave bearishly due to the WedEX signal, but that doesn’t prevent probing higher Friday morning. A pre-Thanksgiving drop should begin soon today or Monday, or else the most bearish template would be a trading range through the holiday.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2184.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2186.25 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2188.00 would be likely to trigger bias-up. Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2177.75 would be likely to trigger the 2179.25 bias-down signal at 10:15.