The First Trade

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
Even just threatening to attack 2192.00 was likely also to visit 2187.50, which was the decline’s minimum downside target. Thursday’s open at Wednesday’s late 2202.00 resistance did reverse down to probe fresh lows, extending through the session until touching 2187.50. A fresh low was probed briefly down to 2186.00. The late dip was isolated to the final hour, again suggesting the decline is by weak-handed sponsorship. A last-minute bounce targeting 2192.25 was met and held.

Overnight action’s new info…
Fulfilling last-minute buying pressure had required the bounce to extend immediately, if at all. And it didn’t. Slowly trending back down to 2187.50 became steeper at Europe’s opens, dropping to fresh lows at 2184.25. Now a bounce is testing 2187.50 as resistance.

If, then…
Extending down any deeper after the open would likely also visit “lower prior highs” at 2181.00. Probing lower overnight doesn’t yet mandate this lower objective. But probing lower overnight does open the door to a recovery setup other than gapping up. And that would be accomplished by isolating a post-open test of the 2184.25 overnight low, already rallying back above prior lows coming out of the open. Otherwise, holding 2181.00 or breaking under it will be vulnerable to Friday Factors that are influenced by the weekend’s impending illiquidity.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] No preliminary levels are considered before an Employment Situation report.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
Testing Wednesday morning’s 2213.25 bias-up target pre-open and to within 1 tick post-open held up long enough to form an anchor. But price resolved down, anyway, rejecting the 2207.75 bias-up signal. That put into play a test of 2199.75, which the afternoon bias environment fulfilled it. RSIs diverged positively on its retest to help launch a bounce. But it had gotten late, and counter-trend sponsorship didn’t stop another drop to fresh lows at 2197.50.  It was the third consecutive session ending in decline.

Overnight action’s new info…
A relatively shallow bounce attacked 2202.00 before reversing to fresh lows at 2194.25. Reacting up to attack 2199.00 before Europe’s opens has only maintained that range throughout. Now its lower-end is being attacked again as US traders start arriving into the arena.

If, then…
Wednesday was the third consecutive session ending on the brink of rolling over. Thursday may be the first session not to fight back. Neither of the two setups for rejecting the late dip is possible if the open were to gap down, as is indicated currently. And not rejecting Wednesday’s late break will likely trend down Thursday morning. Wednesday morning’s anchor still suggests this reaction down will be recovered. But simply attacking last week’s 2192.00 support at this stage should ultimately probe it down to 2187.50.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2196.25 would be likely to trigger the 2197.50 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2201.50 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
Tuesday’s bounce came to within 1 point of neutralizing “unfinished business above” at 2210.50. Then the afternoon bias environment began lapsing, and proximity didn’t matter. The unfinished business was left outstanding. Reversing down sharply to 2201.25 probed back within the morning’s “lower prior highs.” The late low stopped just several ticks optimistically short of natural support at unchanged at 2200.00-2201.00. Firming into the close held 2203.75, which had been the morning’s bias-up signal.

Overnight action’s new info…
Remnants of Tuesday’s late slide were barely visible after the close. A slightly lower low only touched 2200.75, and only eventually. It was beneficial to still be trading in sympathy with Crude Oil, which required an almost immediate rally, and has produced it. Already retracing up to 2205.50 into Europe’s opens, the recovery has extended to probe yesterday’s high up to 2210.25.

If, then…
A similar setup to yesterday’s open is trying to resolve today in the bullish way that yesterday’s had failed. Both prior sessions’ late drops closed back under relevant support. In both setups, gapping up above the prior afternoon’s highs was the only path to marginalizing sellers for the day. Yesterday’s open was greeted by a failed overnight rally, and its intraday rally failed, too. Last night’s rally may yet fail by this morning’s open, but currently it’s probing fresh highs. Extending higher this morning would be likely at least to attack 2220.00 intraday. Not marginalizing buyers at the open could resume the decline with a vengeance.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2208.50 would be likely to trigger the 2207.75 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2205.50 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
Monday morning’s high touched the 2209.50 target of Friday’s bias signal. Monday afternoon’s high attacked it. But positive territory was never recovered. And the afternoon’s no-bias environment lapsed without trying another recovery, so a decline filled the void. And it extended until probing he 2199.50 overnight low by 5 ticks as the position-squaring window lapsed. Monday’s last several minutes bounced to 2201.00. More “unfinished business above” was created, and left outstanding. The gap back up to Friday’s 2210.50 cash session close, and Monday morning’s 2211.50 bias-up signal, are both likely to be tested before a durable downleg can begin. .

Overnight action’s new info…
Monday’s last-minute bounce was corrected by more than 3 points to test 2199.00. Probing above 2202.00 before Europe’s opens improved up to 2206.00. Another reaction down of more than 3 points has since ranged around this morning’s 2203.75 bias-up signal.

If, then…
Yesterday’s close at fresh intraday lows put into play a retest of 2192.00 prior lows, probably down to 2187.50. That downleg would be delayed by gapping up today above yesterday afternoon’s 2207.00 high. The delay setup would also form a “session-long rally,” likely to test the newly-created “unfinished business above” at 2210.50 and 2211.50 — which is in addition to the 2220.00 objective put into play by closing last week above 2192.00. So, today’s open is currently indicated at the midpoint of a 30-35 point range. Either end is equally likely to be tested, before reversing to the opposite end. And the resolution to today’s open could tell us which end will be tested first.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2207.00 would be likely to trigger the 2203.75 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2201.50 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
Friday’s opening 15 minutes of volatility being glued to 2205.50 suggested almost instantly that the holiday-shortened session would likely not be volatile. Trending would be difficult, although the 2204.25 bias-up signal did trigger. But its 2209.50 bias-up target wasn’t even attacked until 3 hours of a 6-tick range around 2207.50. A last-minute break higher met 2209.50 on the way to attacking 2212.00 after the close.

Overnight action’s new info…
Weekend headlines had backed away from a unified OPEC. Sunday night’s open gapped down to the 2208.00 origin of Friday’s last-minute 3-point surge. It extended down to test Friday morning’s 2204.75 post-open lows, and bounced back up to 2208.00. Headlines of Italy’s bank problems triggered a plunge to 2199.50.testing Tuesday and Wednesday’s “lower prior highs.” Its reaction up tested 2206.00.

If, then…
Only the 2220.00 objective created above 2192.00 was “unfinished business above” as of Friday’s close. Gapping down today would create new unfinished business above at the gap back up to Friday’s 2210.50 cash session close. It’s 2211.50 close would likely be filled, too, having developed on a Friday. The overnight drop is currently reacting up back into Friday’s range, but not maintaining its recovery — gapping down back under Tuesday and Wednesday’s 2202.25 prior highs — would isolate Friday’s new highs and launch a multi-session reversal down.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2101.50 would be likely to trigger the 2205.50 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open. Exiting the open above 2207.50 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down.