The First Trade

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
Bouncing up to 2175.50 Wednesday afternoon gained traction, but in the least impressive way. The bias environment lapsed at the noon hour’s upper-end, but not necessarily above it, which would have been optimal. Instead, it was left to the final hour’s entry above the bias environment’s high, confirmed by the proxy window trending higher. All of which developed under the morning’s 2176.25 high, which remained un-probed through the close as price dipped to 2172.00. WedEX triggered an active bearish signal.

Overnight action’s new info…
Initially firming and gradually rallying probed Wednesday’s highs up to 2178.25. That was retraced entirely to greet Europe’s opens back down at 2172.00, which held. Wednesday’s highs are now being tested up to 2176.50.

If, then…
Thanks to having gained traction, trending up overnight isn’t required for resuming the rally this morning. But it would help. And until actually resolving up, there’s vulnerability to repeating Wednesday’s gap down. The minimum bullish objective is at least to retest Tuesday’s highs, and notice that the gap back to Tuesday’s 2177.50 close was tested already overnight. So, despite no gap indicated currently, gapping down anyway could be all the more bearish for having neutralized that attraction above. But simply avoiding a gap down should be more bullish than bearish, at least until the bearish WedEX’s influence begins tomorrow afternoon.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2179.75 would be likely to trigger the 2177.75 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2174.25 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
The ongoing delay in retesting last Wednesday night’s 2180.50 high looked promising through Tuesday’s open. Indeed, the morning chopped around under the 2169.75 overnight high. But not until Tuesday afternoon when the no-bias environment had barely begun lapsing did a rally from its 2165.00 low break to fresh session highs. The breakout extended almost relentlessly up to 2178.00 into the cash session close, then to within 1 tick of 2180.00 at the futures close. Buyers gained traction.

Overnight action’s new info…
Brief consolidation up to 2180.00 suddenly exploded higher to touch 2185.00. Its quick reaction down to 2181.00 eventually gave way, and the balance of the night has trended back down into negative territory. Now printing fresh lows down to 2169.00 testing yesterday morning’s 2169.50 “lower prior highs.”

If, then…
The pattern we’ve been monitoring continues to behave as expected — retesting 2180.00, up to 2185.00-2186.00, and being vulnerable to reversing down sharply. The only wild card is all of this playing out overnight instead of intraday. A morning rally still gets a benefit of the doubt, since yesterday’s rally gained traction for its efforts. Trending up can begin from gapping down, and would still be likely to probe fresh highs, like the upper-end of 2185.00-2186.00. First testing yesterday morning’s 2169.50 “lower prior highs” might be necessary, if that’s still being attacked near the open. That would be dangerous, since gapping down under 2167.00 would form a “session-long decline” setup. The bearish scenario wasn’t very unlikely before testing the upside objectives… which now have been tested.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2166.75 would be likely also to exceed the 2168.50 bias-down target at 10:15 to renew the bias-down signal. Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2170.00 would be likely to at least trigger the 2173.25 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2175.50 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
Monday pre-open bounce above Friday’s 2161.00-2162.000 highs up to 2169.50 didn’t even attack Sunday night’s 2174.50 highs. A brief post-open rally effort stopped even shorter. The balance of Monday’s session was spent backing-and-filling back under Friday’s highs. Rallying off of the noon hour’s 2152.50 low extended up to 2164.00, and was poised to rally through the final hour, but a Presidential press conference paralyzed buyers through the close.

Overnight action’s new info…
Monday afternoon’s recovery resumed with little delay, probing above 2164.00 before midnight. Extending higher through Europe’s opens eventually attacked 2170.00. Too much, too soon? The past couple of hours have been sliding, momentarily attacking 2162.00.

If, then…
Retracing the late dip from 2164.00 was not assured, but it would target a retest of Monday morning’s high up to 2169.00. That was done overnight. So, is the reaction down just a temporary correction, or will last night’s rally be ignored intraday like last Wednesday night and Sunday night’s rallies? The dip is probably only temporary, so long as Friday’s 2161.00-2162.000 highs hold as support. A rally shouldn’t even test Monday afternoon’s 2164.00 high post-open, and preferably gap up to and/or through 2169.00. That would again position the market for retesting the 2180.00 area, and possibly higher. By the same token, opening under Friday’s 2161.00-2162.000 highs would be likely to probe under Friday and Monday’s lows, targeting 2141.00 for starters.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2161.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2166.25 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2169.00 would be likely to trigger bias-up.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
Friday’s 8-10 point gap down fell another 8 points through the morning, and still managed only to attack Thursday’s 2147.75 lows. That relative shallowness is a product of how wide ranging was Thursday’s choppy session. The balance of Friday’s session fluctuated back up to the 2156.50-2162.00 open, within the morning’s range, which reflected the narrower participation of the Veteran’s Day holiday. No unfinished business was left outstanding.

Overnight action’s new info…
Friday recovery back up to its morning highs resumed immediately. And the wide-ranging choppiness of Thursday resumed, too. Sunday night’s open gapped up 5 points and extended relentlessly to attack 2174.00. Reacting down to attack 2165.50 was recovered to 2174.00, which held several tests as resistance through Europe’s opens. Gradually slipping from there suddenly broke sharply lower, briefly probing negative territory and Friday’s “lower prior highs” down to 2158.00. A recovery attempt is now testing 2165.00.

If, then…
Attraction to higher objective remains stronger than any signs that the slowing upside momentum is rolling over. Gapping up and extending higher Sunday night suggests that attraction remains influential, but its reaction reminds us to be watchful for more backing-and-filling first. That downside become likelier if today’s open is back under Friday’s 2161.00-2162.00 highs, which would isolate Sunday night’s rally to the overnight. Otherwise, extending higher to retest 2180.00 intraday would still be vulnerable to reacting down, instead of fulfilling its potential to 2185.00-2186.00.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2169.00 would be likely to trigger the 2165.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2158.75 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
Thursday afternoon’s reaction down from 2175.50 stopped short of Its minimum objective to probe under 2160.00, and only attacked 2162.00 during the position-squaring window. No bounce developed, and the balance of the session only ranged narrowly around Wednesday’s late-afternoon ~2168.00 high. That was under the morning’s 2178.50 high, which had stopped short of the 2180.50 overnight high. And 2180.00 had been the rally’s next higher objective.

Overnight action’s new info…
A slightly deeper dip still stopped short of 2160.00 before bouncing to 2170.50..But a drop that began with Europe’s opens has extended down sharply to test this morning’s 2151.75 bias-down target by 2 ticks. Its reaction is attacking 2160.00.

If, then…
Probing the prior day’s high and closing back under it is not a sign of strength. Yesterday’s close was AT Wednesday’s high, which doesn’t represent any stronger of a rally. Overnight action has dipped deeper, but remains within yesterday’s range, which also qualifies as orbiting around Wednesday’s high. Extending the rally still can’t afford much of a delay to resuming post-open, or else a much deeper pullback will develop. This being a Friday, the morning’s bias often persists through the noon hour — and there’s plenty of room below for a correction.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2154.25 would be likely to trigger the 2157.50 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2160.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down.