Daily Spot

A weekly summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] These can be viewed with accompanying charts at this link.

Dollar Basket Sep (DXU) Breaking out is easy to do. The bounce’s potential to 76.55 was fulfilled at Friday’s opening gap up. The rally then extended higher to 77.37 as the Euro probed new lows. So long as 76.85 were to hold as support, the next higher objectives are 78.00 and 78.45. There are now two outstanding gaps below to fill that will prevent a durable rally.

Gold Dec (GCZ) Slow day. The minimum objective of filling the gap back to Tuesday’s 1875.10 close was fulfilled by a strong overnight rally up to 1889.10. But not so strong as to avoid gapping down in negative territory down to 1825.50. Nevertheless, 1835.00 held as support to prevent a decline from gaining traction. And a recovery closed in positive territory. Tuesday’s 1875.10 gap should still be filled intraday, possibly on the way to new highs at 1933.00.

Silver Dec (SIZ) Stealth accumulation. An overnight probe above Tuesday’s highs to 42.80 was reversed into negative territory Friday. All of the session was spent in negative territory, filling the gap back to Wednesday’s 41.57 close. In fact, the gap was tested repeatedly without breaking lower. This is “ineffectual pessimism,” which undermines sellers, and keeps alive potential to resume the rally to fresh highs above 44.00.

30-year Treasury Dec (USZ) Going out on almost a high note. My concern Thursday was that closing only under 140’06 did not confirm Wednesday’s break. In fact, the bounce potential up to 141’12 was fulfilled, and tested into the close. There is no requirement to retest the 142’00 high before turning down. A new downleg would be signaled upon closing under 140’06.

Crude Oil Oct (CLV) Shaky ground. Friday’s gap down tested the 86.90 sell signal, and even probed more than $1 below it. But the level was recovered through the close, along with an intraday probe under the morning’s low. This is “ineffectual pessimism,” keeping alive potential for filling the gap back up to Thursday’s 89.00 close and possibly also probe its 90.23 high.

Natural Gas Oct (NGV) Opened, traded, closed. Friday’s gap down was retraced enough to almost fill the gap back to Thursday’s close. Sellers did not gain traction despite spending the entire session in negative territory. Still waiting for a close above 3.95-4.00 to trigger a rally.

[/pay]

Share your questions and comments on this post in the blog, or in the chartroom…

A weekly summary of high-profile members of several complexes.[pay]

Dollar Basket Sep (DXU) Sucking higher. Wednesday’s “inside day” that was biased downward meant weak hands were sellers. That left the door open to resuming the bounce up to 76.55. Thursday’s open did gap up, and the session eventually extended higher to 76.40. Fresh highs remain in-play so long as 76.00 now holds as support.

Gold Dec (GCZ) Down, but not out. Despite underperforming Silver during Wednesday’s plunge down to 1793.80, a retest of last Wednesday’s ~1843.50 high was likely. Gapping above it was likely to fill the gap back up to Tuesday’s 1875.10 close. Gapping open above 1843.50 did get to 1868.70 intraday. And it got there early, ranging narrowly through the balance of the session. This is “ineffectual pessimism,” making the gap fill likelier. In fact, Gold extended higher to 1873.30 after the close, keeping alive potential for a fresh high at 1833.00.

Silver Dec (SIZ) Out, but not down. Thursday’s gap up attacked Tuesday’s 42.70 highs, early enough to have probed higher. But the balance of the session hovered just below, presumably conserving energy for breaking higher Friday to probe above 44.00 — so long as 41.60-41.65 were to hold as support.

30-year Treasury Dec (USZ) Just a warning shot. Gapping up Thursday probed 140’06 resistance, but quickly retraced back into Wednesday’s range, into negative territory at 139’09. But the close recovered into positive territory instead of confirming Tuesday’s break with a negative close. And the close was attacking 140’06, which is dangerously close for launching a retest of the 142’00 high — at least up to 141’12 if any higher at all.

Crude Oil Oct (CLV) Price creep. Despite backing off from the overnight 90.11 fresh highs, the reaction down held within the narrow 88.40-89.20 range at last week’s highs. Closing under 86.90 would signal momentum reversing down, but otherwise there is still potential for extending higher to test 92.00.

Natural Gas Oct (NGV) There’s patience, and there’s comatose. Wednesday’s probes above 4.00 were repeated Thursday, but not to higher highs. Nevertheless, 3.95 did support the range’s lower-end. This does not disqualify a rally from gaining  traction. I would still expect a rally to begin by surging sharply intraday. But I would also expect a rally to begin without further delay.

[/pay]

Share your questions and comments on this post in the blog, or in the chartroom…

A weekly summary of high-profile members of several complexes.[pay]

Dollar Basket Sep (DXU) Hanging on. Tuesday’s test of the 76.00 target reacted down Wednesday, but only to attack Tuesday’s post-open low. It was an “inside day” so its sponsorship didn’t gain traction. And it was biased downward, so its sponsorship was sellers. Therefore, sellers are the weak hands, making at least another fresh high likely. A test of 76.55 is still likely.

Gold Dec (GCZ) Fickle. Wednesday’s gap down to 1837.50 from Tuesday’s ~1870.00 close extended lower intraday to 1793.80. The support of last week’s narrow range was defined as essentially 1819.00-1820.00, and closing under it would have signaled momentum reversing down — it was still being tested through the close. Closing above the range’s 1835.00 upper-end would have been bullish, so gapping open Thursday above its 1843.00 prior high (which should be tested regardless) would still be likely to extend higher to fill the gap back up to Tuesday’s ~1870.00 close.

Silver Dec (SIZ) All that glitters may be Silver for awhile. Its outperformance vs. Gold Thursday included closing while in the process of testing resistance, and not just still testing support. This is despite the session low having filled and outstanding gap, which Gold only attacked. A stronger recovery from a greater depth suggests that rotation into Silver is resuming. Its gap back to Friday’s 43.12 close should attract price higher, potentially to fresh highs above 44.00.

30-year Treasury Dec (USZ) Wake-up call. Wednesday’s gap down under 140’06 extended down 1 point before bouncing. The bounce then held 140’06 as resistance, and formed an Island out of Tuesday’s test of 142’00. Since 140’06 was the prior high, there is no requirement to retest the Island that formed from gapping down under 140’06. And closing under 139’00 would extend the decline rapidly. That said, closing back above 140’06 Thursday would invalidate the Island, to at least retest the high.

Crude Oil Oct (CLV) Pop it and drop it. Tuesday’s recovery from 83.20 extended up to the 89.75 area, attacking last week’s high. A fresh high is likely above 90.00, and it could extend to 92.00 (or $2-$3 higher). But now closing under 86.90 would signal momentum reversing down, confirmed under 84.80.

Natural Gas Oct (NGV) Another college try. Where Tuesday’s recovery attempt stopped at the lower-end of its 3.95-4.00 resistance, Wednesday’s recovery attempt probed 3.95-4.00 intraday. The close was in the process of testing 3.95 as support. A close above 4.00 is needed to actually rob sellers of their traction. And at this stage of the pattern, it should be done by surging aggressively to fresh highs. To which I note that Thursday brings the weekly EIA report.

[/pay]

Share your questions and comments on this post in the blog, or in the chartroom…

A weekly summary of high-profile members of several complexes.[pay]

Dollar Basket Sep (DXU) Once more, from the top. Holiday strength extended into Tuesday’s opening gap up. And  Tuesday’s opening gap up extended up to the 76.00 target. The rally’s dubious origin — coming after a confirmed sell signal had put into play 73.00, and the delayed follow-through above 74.55 – does want that the rally cannot tolerate much pullback. But it can extend higher to fresh highs above 76.55 so long as 75.15 were to hold as support.

Gold Dec (GCZ) Fresh high, fresh resistance. New highs into Tuesday’s open probed the 1915.00 prior highs up to 1923.70. Its retest was likely also to test 1133.00-1135.00, but the reaction down already tested 1861.00. The reaction should not gain traction without first probing another new high, at least holding 1871.00 as support on a closing basis. Closing under 1853.70 would signal momentum reversing down.

Silver Dec (SIZ) Another rotation is ending. Tuesday’s entire session was spent in negative territory, proof that Friday’s buyers did not gain traction. that’s not necessarily bearish, since Tuesday’s low did fill the gap back down to Friday’s 41.62 close. Rallying Wednesday or Thursday with Gold would likely probe fresh highs.

30-year Treasury Sep (USU) There, but for the sake of a crash? Flight-to-quality produced a retest of the 141.06 high that was already in-play. and the retest extended higher to 141’29. Its retest would be triggered back above 141’18. Otherwise, Tuesday’s reaction down to 140’23 would be bearish at this stage only if Wednesday’s open were to gap down under 140’06 to form an Island Reversal.

Crude Oil Oct (CLV) Try, try, retry again. Despite once again probing the 84.80 sell signal intraday — and once again probing it meaningfully down to 83.20 — the close recovered back above the sell signal. Unlike last week’s two prior intraday attempts, the entire session was spent essentially in negative territory. The 84.80 recovery should prove quickly to have been only temporary.

Natural Gas Oct (NGV) No cigar. Tuesday’s bounce came near reversing Friday’s carnage. Only a close back above 3.95-4.00 could trigger any sort of rally, and Tuesday’s high only touched 3.95. Closing above 4.00 would be bullish.

[/pay]

Share your questions and comments on this post in the blog, or in the chartroom…

A weekly summary of high-profile members of several complexes.[pay]

Dollar Basket Sep (DXU) Skeptical strength. Whipsaw reactions to Friday’s NFP essentially ranged between 74.55 support, and Thursday’s ~74.80 high. Closing any higher would have put into play 76.00. Perhaps it did — a second consecutive higher close would confirm. Meanwhile, closing back under 74.15 would target 73.00.

Gold Dec (GCZ) One might think another QE was coming. Finally tested its 1851.50-1853.70 bounce target Friday. But rather than reverse down, the rally extended sharply to 1887.40. Almost any higher high would target a retest of 1915.00 up to 1933.50. Otherwise, a close under 1853.70 is needed to signal momentum reversing down, ending a massive corrective bounce.

Silver Dec (SIZ) That’s why it’s awarded to second place. The 42.75 and 43.15 targets were both tested Friday up to 43.50. Closing under 42.50 would signal  a new downleg underway. Otherwise, fresh highs would target 44.44.

30-year Treasury Dec (USZ) Weak jobs, weak stocks, weak sellers. Having absorbed three attempts to trigger a downleg, Friday’s favorable NFP reaction bounced. It extended up sharply in a flight-to-safety amid falling stocks, probing the 139’28 prior high (141’06 basis Sep) up to 140’13. Its retest should visit 140’16 and potentially 140’22. Closing any higher could extend up to 144’04.

Crude Oil Oct (CLV) Predictable. Perhaps too predictable to last. Last Monday’s gap up above 86.95 had only limped higher all week to barely probe fresh highs up to 90.00. Friday’s open gapped down under 86.95. The drop may yet extend down to test 84.80, whose break would signal momentum reversing down. Almost any delay in extending down would be vulnerable to filling the gap back to Thursday’s 89.15 close.

Natural Gas Oct (NGV) Hurricane damage, without the hurricane. If Friday’s plunge was the result of downgrading hurricane Katia, then the week’s earlier rally had expected a stronger storm. Could be, but headline reactions is the stuff of weak-handed sponsorship — both up, and down. This pattern should not have been able to close above 3.95 and 4.00 unless the rally’s sponsorship was strong hands. Perhaps the drop back to 3.85 from 4.10 was exacerbated by the news and by the impending weekend. But any bullish scenario would require some decisive recovery through Tuesday’s close.

[/pay]

Share your questions and comments on this post in the blog, or in the chartroom…